The Portland Trail Blazers (12-7) will have their hands full against the NBA’s top shooting defense when they clash with the Los Angeles Clippers (12-6) at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The game is scheduled to start at 9 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 25, 2018.
Portland is a 4-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 227.5 points.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers ATS Prediction
The last time the Clippers played, they covered the 4.5-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies, 112-107. The game’s combined points (219) finished over the O/U total of 210. The Clippers knocked down 24 of their 27 free throws (88.9 percent), while the Grizzlies had a turnover percentage of 13.8 (above the 9.8 mark opponents have averaged against Los Angeles this season). Los Angeles was lifted by Montrezl Harrell, who led the team in scoring with 22 points on 7-for-14 shooting.
The Trail Blazers lost big to the Golden State Warriors in their last contest, 125-97. They failed to cover as 1-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (222) were over the O/U total of 218.5. Golden State’s 0.665 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Portland, who had a mark of 0.457. The Warriors’ mark was above their season average of 0.556, while the Trail Blazers’ was below their season average of 0.519. With 23 points on 9-for-24 shooting, Damian Lillard led Portland in scoring.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Lillard scored a game-high 25 points in the first game, in which the Trail Blazers beat the Clippers 116-105, covering as 5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 221 points, which was just 4.5 points below the projected point total of 225.5 points. The Trail Blazers had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.2 vs. 15.2) and had a better free throw rate (0.268 vs. 0.169).
Los Angeles comes into the game with records of 12-6 straight up (SU) and 11-7 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to set the total low when the Clippers are playing, as 12 of their 18 games have gone over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Portland owns records of 12-7 SU and 11-8 ATS. Games featuring the Trail Blazers also have a tendency to finish over the total (57.9 percent).
Harrell has averaged 20 points,8.8 rebounds,1.8 blocks,1.4 steals over the last five games for Los Angeles.
The offensive glass could be a huge advantage for Portland in this battle. The Trail Blazers rank eighth in offensive rebounding percentage (25.9 percent), while Los Angeles ranks 21st in defensive rebounding percentage (75.8 percent). Additionally, the Clippers, who rank first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.273), will face a difficult test against the Trail Blazers, who rank first in opponents’ FTA rate (0.162).
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers ATS Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Clippers, ATS Winner – Clippers, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Los Angeles is 4-5 ATS with 6 overs and 3 unders.
Portland is 7-2 ATS at home with 5 unders and 4 overs.
In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Los Angeles is 2-0 and Portland is 4-0.
The Clippers and Trail Blazers are both 12-5 when they reach the century mark.
Portland averages 49.9 rebounds per game, which ranks second in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 19th in rebounds allowed per game (45.9).
The Trail Blazers rank 12th in three pointers attempted per game (32.1) while the Clippers rank 27th (25.4).
Los Angeles averages 5.5 blocks per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Portland ranks 25th in blocks allowed per game (6.2).
The Trail Blazers rank 10th in second chance points per game (14.4) while the Clippers rank 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (15.0).
Portland ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.2) while Los Angeles ranks 13th (17.0).
The Clippers rank 18 in fast break points per game (11.944444444444445) while the Trail Blazers rank 27 (10.473684210526315).
Los Angeles ranks 6 in points in the paint per game (53) while Portland ranks 13 in points allowed in the paint per game (48.10526315789474).
The Clippers rank 22 in assists per game (22.61111111111111) while the Trail Blazers rank 27 (20.57894736842105).
Neither of these teams are great at stealing the ball. Portland is 28 in the NBA with 6.2105263157894735 steals per game while Los Angeles is last with 5.666666666666667 steals per game.
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In its last five contests, Los Angeles is 3-2 ATS with 5 overs.
Portland is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Clippers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.8, down from 4.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Trail Blazers have scored an average of 106.0 points per game (7.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 120.6 points per game (9.6 above their season average).
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