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Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins Free Pick 05/15/18

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Dodgers are heading east to Marlins Park to play the Miami Marlins. This NL matchup will get going at 7:10 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will televise the game.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins Odds

Los Angeles (-160) is hosting this one as the favorite over Miami (+150) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this night game at 8 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds standing at -110 for the Dodgers -1.5 runs and -110 for the Marlins +1.5 runs.

The Dodgers are 16-24 SU and are 13-27 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 24.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline in this young season and 15.8 units ATS. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 14-26 SU and 20-20 ATS. The team has lost 3.5 units for moneyline bettors and 3.6 units ATS.

Marlins games have had an over/under record of 20-20 so far in 2018. Dodgers games have gone over 20 times, gone under 19 times and pushed on one occasion.

Alex Wood will get the nod for the visiting Dodgers. The left-handed Wood is 0-3 with a 3.60 ERA and 42 strikeouts. He has yet to face Miami this year, but he did make two starts against the Marlins in 2017, posting a 2-0 record against them with a 0.00 ERA and eight strikeouts.

The Marlins will put the ball in the left hand of Wei-Yin Chen (1-2, 10.22 ERA), who has six strikeouts and eight walks this season as well as a 1.95 WHIP. Chen did not record a start against the Dodgers in 2017.

Miami’s pitchers have given up 5.4 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.84, a WHIP of 1.38 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.9. The bullpen has a 5.48 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 9.8 K/9.

The Miami hitters have produced 3.5 runs per outing, including 4.0 per game over its last 10 games and 4.0 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .246/.319/.407 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Justin Bour and catcher J.T. Realmuto have led the way for the Marlins’ batters this year. Bour is hitting .235/.376/.461 with eight home runs, 21 RBIs and 14 runs scored, and Realmuto’s line is .302/.368/.523 with five homers, 10 RBIs and 14 runs scored.

Bour did not do very well against left-handed pitching at home last year. In 46 such plate appearances, he slashed .233/.283/.465 (his overall season line was .289/.366/.536).

In the other dugout, Los Angeles’ pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.94 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.51, along with a WHIP of 1.22.

The Dodgers offense has slashed .239/.322/.387 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

Catcher Yasmani Grandal and left fielder Matt Kemp have led Los Angeles’ offense. Grandal is hitting .275/.385/.500 with six home runs, 24 RBIs and 19 runs scored, while Kemp (.317/.357/.500) is up to five homers, 17 RBIs and 13 runs scored.

Compared to his total season slash line of .247/.308/.459, Grandal didn’t do as well hitting against lefty pitching on the road in 2017, maintaining a slash line of .143/.250/.238 across 48 such plate appearances.

The Dodgers have lost 2.9 units and are 6-8 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in three of those games, compared to 10 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 0.9 units and are 6-4 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to four that’ve gone under.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Dodgers, ATS Winner – Dodgers, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Notes

The under has hit in just two of Miami’s last seven games.

The Dodgers have lost seven of their last eight games SU while the Marlins have lost six of their last seven SU.

Miami has recorded 19.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.4 over its last five.

Both teams have hit 10 home runs over their last 10 games.

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Written by GMS Previews

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