Homer Bailey (2-1, 3.66 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (53-70) go up against Scott Kazmir (10-6, 4.41 ERA) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (68-55) in the last of a four-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The Dodgers won the last game 4-0, and Cincinnati leads the series 2-1. The game starts at 12:35 p.m. ET on Monday, Aug. 22 and will air on SNLA.
In his last start, Bailey pitched 5.0 innings, allowing two, striking out six and walking one in a 3-2 victory over the Marlins. The Dodgers were also victorious the last time Kazmir pitched. He had a good outing, pitching 5.0 innings, giving up two runs, striking out one and walking three in a 7-2 victory over the Phillies. Corey Seager (.316, 80 Rs, 21 HRs, 58 RBIs, 1 SB) has been hitting the ball well for the Dodgers, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one RBI.
Cincinnati is a +127 underdog in this game, and the Over/Under (O/U) is nine runs. The Reds have a losing record of 35-64 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -294. Cincinnati has averaged 5.8 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.5. The Reds are a nightmare on the bases for opponents with 110 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game dropped to 3.8 during that span, compared to its 5.3 season average.
Switching to the opposing dugout, the Dodgers come into this game in an interesting position. They have a negative money line (-556) but have won more than 60 percent of games played as the favorite (61-36). They sport the fourth-ranked offense in the NL, averaging four runs per game. The Dodgers average 3.5 walks per road game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the NL when they travel. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Los Angeles pitchers. They allowed 5.8 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 4.0. They have a WHIP of 1.176 on the year, good for second in the league. The Los Angeles pitching staff has been an intimidating group this year, averaging an NL-best 9.3 strikeouts per game.
The Dodgers have gotten the better of the Reds in head-to-head matchups this season, going 4-2. This game will feature Kazmir (LHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 9-18 record when they take on a left-handed starter. The right-handed Bailey will take the mound against the Dodgers, who have a 54-40 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – LAD, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after seven innings, Los Angeles is 26-21, while Cincinnati is 29-33.
The Dodgers are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Reds have a 12-28 record when opponents give up one walk or less.
When they outhit their opponents, the Dodgers are 50-15. The Reds have a 39-11 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling in the bottom half of the league based on total runs this season, Cincinnati ranks 19th with 548 runs and Los Angeles is 17th with 549.
Ranking 25th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 345 this season. Los Angeles ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 403.
The Reds are 40-39 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Dodgers are 52-28 when they hit at least one homer.
