Zack Greinke (18-3, 1.68 ERA), seeking his 200th strikeout of the season, gets the start for the Los Angeles Dodgers (90-70) as they go up against Robbie Erlin (1-1, 6.30 ERA) and the San Diego Padres (74-86) in the second of a three-game series at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers won the last game 6-2 and Los Angeles leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 9:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 3 and will air on FSSD and SNLA.
In his most recent outing, Greinke pitched 7.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out seven and walking three in a 3-2 loss to the Giants. Justin Turner (.291, 54 Rs, 15 HRs, 59 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run and two RBIs. The Padres were victorious the last time Erlin pitched. He pitched well, going 7.0 innings, giving up zero runs, striking out four and walking one in a 3-0 victory over the Diamondbacks. Matt Kemp (.265, 80 Rs, 23 HRs, 100 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with one RBI.
Los Angeles is a heavy -250 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is six runs. The Dodgers are 80-60 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,250. They have performed well against their division to earn a SU record of 44-30 and a 41-28 record when they were the favorite. The Dodgers typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.5 walks per game. As for the pitching staff, the Dodgers rank fourth in the NL in ERA with a 3.49 team average. The Dodgers don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking second in the league with a 1.19 WHIP. They have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, averaging 8.6 strikeouts per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Padres come into this game with a weak win percentage of .400 when playing as the underdog (34-51) and an overall money line of -1,703. Against divisional opponents, they are 35-39 SU and 15-26 as the underdog. During the last 10 games, they averaged 2.8 runs per game, below their 4.0 season average.
The Dodgers had the upper hand against the Padres in their previous 17 games this season, earning a 12-5 record. The Dodgers will take on a left-hander (Erlin) in this game and have a 20-17 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Greinke will take the mound against the Padres, who have a 57-66 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – LAD, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers’s last 5 games at home.
LA Dodgers are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games at home.
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing San Diego.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers’s last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego.
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers.
San Diego has won 48% (38-41) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Los Angeles has won 52% (30-28) of its games when taking a late lead.
After a weak showing last week where they got in six hits, the Padres need to step it up. The Dodgers have a record of 47-11 when opponents get six hits or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Padres are 55-18. The Dodgers have a 69-11 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 24th, San Diego sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 646 this season. Los Angeles ranks in the bottom half at 19th with 659.
Ranking 23rd, San Diego is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 423 this season. Los Angeles ranks in the top five at third with 556.
When the Dodgers hit at least one home run, they are 67-39. When the Padres hit at least one homer, they have a 52-36 record.
