Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Zack Greinke (5-1, 1.97 ERA) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (32-24) meet Lance Lynn (4-4, 3.03 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (37-19) in the last of a four-game series at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers won the last game 2-0 and St. Louis leads the series 2-1. The game gets underway at 8:08 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 7 and will air on ESPN.
Greinke has a 3.17 ERA and a 9-4 record in his career against the Cardinals, but is up against a strong St. Louis offense that’s hitting .263 on the year. Joc Pederson (.262, 34 Rs, 17 HRs, 33 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. In his pitching opportunities against the Dodgers, Lynn is 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA. He gets a solid Los Angeles offense that’s batting .259.
Los Angeles, a -157 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against St. Louis. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at six runs. When playing as the favorite, the Dodgers have a 28-21 record and overall money line at -177. They are 2-5 as the favorite over their last 10 games. The Dodgers are a power hitting team with 74 home runs, one of the highest totals in the MLB. They have been very patient at the plate, leading the NL with an average of 3.7 walks per game. Turning to the pitching staff, the Dodgers don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking fourth in the league with a 1.20 WHIP. An area where the Dodgers are particularly strong at home is striking batters out, where they average an NL-best 9.3 K’s per home game.
On the other side, the Cardinals have a record of 8-9 when they are the underdog and are +1,685 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 8-2 SU and have an unblemished 2-0 record when they were an underdog to win. St. Louis’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 2.0 runs per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 2.8. The St. Louis pitching staff has been an intimidating group on the road this year, averaging 8.2 strikeouts per game.
The Cardinals have gotten the better of the Dodgers in head-to-head matchups this season, going 4-2. The Dodgers will take on a right-hander (Lynn) in this game and have a 29-18 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Greinke will take the mound against the Cardinals. Against righty starters this season, they’ve racked up an impressive 30-13 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – LAD, O/U – Over
Notes
Los Angeles has won 50% (11-11) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 72% (13-5) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Dodgers are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Cardinals have a 15-4 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Dodgers are 4-16. The Cardinals have a 9-12 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 26th in home runs, St. Louis has hit 40 this season. Los Angeles ranks second with 74 home runs.
Ranking eighth, Los Angeles is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.56 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.11.
Ranking first in on-base plus slugging percentage, Los Angeles has an OPS of .780 this season. St. Louis ranks 12th with an OPS of .717.
When the Cardinals allow at least one home run, they are 15-12. When the Dodgers allow one or more homers, they have a 14-16 record.
