The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (-8.5) are set to take on their in-conference nemesis Georgia State Panthers at Parker H. Petit Field at Georgia State Stadium. The afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 2:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ has the TV rights.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Georgia State Panthers Betting Preview
In this Saturday Sun Belt matchup, Louisiana-Monroe is labeled as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 8.5 points. The Warhawks are also receiving -350 moneyline odds while the Panthers are +270. Should one side can find paydirt in the early stages, it would probably generate a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game.
The game’s opening line was 7, but square bettors are hammering the Warhawks.
The Warhawks are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.9 units so far. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 1-2. The Panthers have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-3 ATS and also own an O/U record of 1-2.
The Warhawks are 2-2 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Panthers are 1-3 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.
The Warhawks look to bounce back after a 35-27 loss to Troy last week where Caleb Evans completed 29-of-48 passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Evans (101 rushing yards on 15 attempts) also led the ground attack in the loss and was complemented by Derrick Gore (52 yards on 10 carries, one TD). Gore (seven receptions, 38 yards) and Sloan Spiller (four catches, 25 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.
Georgia State just fell 34-15 to Western Michigan. The defensive unit let the Broncos run for 294 yards on 45 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Jamauri Bogan had a solid outing for Western Michigan, recording 126 rushing yards and a score on 15 attempts. For Georgia State, Dan Ellington completed 19-of-29 passes for 285 yards and one interception. Ellington (35 rushing yards on 18 attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Penny Hart (five receptions, 91 yards) and Cornelius McCoy (five catches, 80 yards) led all Georgia State pass-catchers.
Louisiana-Monroe’s run the ball on 46.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia State has an overall rush percentage of 53.2 percent. The Warhawks have produced 168 rush yards per game and have four scores via handoffs this year. The Panthers are logging 117 rushing yards per game and have five total rush TDs.
Judging by the early season results, it appears the Warhawks may own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has generated 4.9 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 4.0 to opponents. The Panthers have recorded 3.3 yards per carry and given up 6.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Warhawks offensive scheme has averaged 264 yards through the air overall and has seven passing TDs so far. The Panthers have produced 213 pass yards per contest and have three total pass scores.
Defensively, Louisiana-Monroe has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 138 yards and pass for 330 yards per game. The Georgia State defense has allowed 282.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 250.0 yards per game on the ground. The Warhawks are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.35 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers have given up a staggering 10.80 ANY/A.
Offensively, Evans has put up 831 passing yards on the year, and has completed 79-of-129 attempts with six passing scores and three interceptions. He has a 6.07 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.50 over the last two games.
Look for a balanced attack offensively from Louisiana-Monroe in this one. Caleb Evans, Derrick Gore and Marcus Green have combined to account for 351 total yards over the last two outings.
Dan Ellington has managed to complete 54-of-85 passes for 666 yards, three TDs and one INT for Georgia State. His ANY/A stands at 6.68 for the year and 4.55 over his past two outings.
Destin Coates, Penny Hart and Cornelius McCoy have combined for 382 total yards over the last couple of outings.
When these two programs faced each other last year, Georgia State emerged victorious by a score of 47-37.
Betting Pick: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Georgia State Panthers
SU Winner – Louisiana-Monroe, ATS Winner – Louisiana-Monroe
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Louisiana-Monroe defensive unit has 11 sacks on the year while Georgia State has just two.
The Georgia State offense has lost four fumbles in 2018 while Louisiana-Monroe has lost two.
The Warhawks offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Panthers have put up two such plays.
The Louisiana-Monroe defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Georgia State has given up four such plays.
Both teams have produced four rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Louisiana-Monroe offense has recorded 22 running plays of 10+ yards while Georgia State has accounted for 21 such plays.
The Warhawks defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Panthers have given up seven such runs.
Georgia State was the underdog by 10 points in its previous matchup and the O/U was set at 61. The under cashed and Georgia State did not cover in the team’s 34-15 loss to Western Michigan.
Over its last three contests, Georgia State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matchups, Louisiana-Monroe is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Louisiana-Monroe was getting 4 points in its last game and the Over/Under going into it was 58. The over cashed and Louisiana-Monroe was not able to cover in the 35-27 defeat to Troy.
Louisiana-Monroe has averaged 4.86315789473684 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.7 over its last two.
Georgia State has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.2 over its past two.
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