Offense meets defense when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-5, 3-2 ACC) welcome the Louisville Cardinals (13-4, 3-1 ACC) to Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 16, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 139 points with Notre Dame opening as a 3-point favorite.
Louisville Cardinals vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Prediction
In the Cardinals’ last contest, they beat the Virginia Tech Hokies, 94-86. The Cardinals, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.4, had a phenomenal mark of 35.5, while the Hokies had a turnover percentage of 21.2 (above their season average of 16.0). Louisville rallied around Deng Adel, who was the game’s high scorer with 27 points on 10-for-15 shooting.
The Fighting Irish lost a tough one against the No. 20 North Carolina Tar Heels in their last matchup, 69-68. North Carolina’s 9.3 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Notre Dame, who had a mark of 13.2. The Tar Heels’ mark was better than their season average of 15.0. With 19 points on 6-for-20 shooting, Temple Gibbs was the top scorer from either team.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength as the high-powered offense of Notre Dame takes on the stingy defense of Louisville. The Fighting Irish rank 25th in offensive efficiency, while the Cardinals are 33rd in defensive efficiency.
Louisville comes into the contest with records of 13-4 straight up (SU) and 7-7-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Cardinals games, with 8 overs compared to 7 unders.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 13-5 SU and 7-6 ATS. Contrary to Louisville, a little over half of Fighting Irish games have finished under the O/U total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Adel (13.8 points and 5.6 rebounds) has been fantastic for the Cardinals while Martinas Geben (10.2 rebounds, 9.6 points and 1.2 blocks) has made solid contributions to the Fighting Irish.
After splitting two games last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. The Cardinals won the last matchup 71-64. The Cardinals had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (45.7 vs. 22.2) and had a better free throw rate (0.237 vs. 0.155).
Louisville Cardinals vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Louisville, ATS Winner – Louisville, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Louisville is 2-3 ATS on the road with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Notre Dame is 2-3 ATS at home with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Louisville ranks ninth in assists allowed per game (9.9) while Notre Dame ranks 131st (13.4).
The Fighting Irish rank 99th in rebounds per game (37.1) while the Cardinals rank 212th in rebounds allowed per game (37.2).
Louisville ranks second in blocks per game (7.6) while Notre Dame ranks 79th in blocks allowed per game (3.3).
The Fighting Irish rank 36th in steals allowed per game (5.2) while the Cardinals rank 102nd (6.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Louisville is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Notre Dame is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Cardinals’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.8, down from 10.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Fighting Irish have scored an average of 65.6 points per game (12.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 59.0 points per game (5.2 below their season average).
