The Kentucky Wildcats host the Louisville Cardinals at Commonwealth Stadium this week. It’s been a rough season for Kentucky (5-6) and it hasn’t gotten any better as of late, having lost four of its last five. The game will begin Saturday, Nov 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on SECN.
Kentucky routed Charlotte 58-10 last week. Jojo Kemp had an outstanding performance on the ground in the win, rushing for 165 yards and three TDs on 11 carries. Stanley Boom Williams also had a big day, contributing 140 rushing yards and two TDs on 16 attempts. Louisville didn’t have the same success as Kentucky, getting beat by Pittsburgh 45-34. Jamari Staples had a big game for the Cardinals, totaling nine receptions for 194 yards and one TD.
Louisville is a four-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment.
The Wildcats enter the game with records of 5-6 Straight Up (SU) and 3-8 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In the past five games, Kentucky is 1-4 for both SU and ATS. Over its last five games, the Kentucky rushing attack has averaged 209.4 yards per game. Turning to the Wildcats defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. The Cardinals will be matching up against a stout Kentucky pass defense, which only allowed 191.6 passing yards over their last five matchups. A pivotal part of the game will be whether the Wildcats can attack Louisville’s ball security, which currently is one of the worst in the nation with 1.1 fumbles lost per game.
On the other side, the Cardinals have 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS records this season. In the previous five games, Louisville is 4-1 SU, but is 1-4 ATS. Louisville’s 17th-ranked run defense has given its competition headaches. Opponents have only run for 121.2 yards per game against this intimidating group. The Wildcats will need to secure the ball against the turnover-minded Cardinals. The defense ranks 20th in the country in turnovers with two per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – Louisville, ATS Winner – Louisville
Notes
Kentucky is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games.
Kentucky is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
Kentucky is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Kentucky’s last 11 games at home.
Kentucky is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Louisville.
Kentucky is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Louisville.
Kentucky is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Louisville.
Kentucky is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Louisville.
Louisville is 6-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Kentucky is 4-0 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
Remarkably, Kentucky is only 1-5 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (2-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
The Louisville run defense is ranked 17th in the nation, and will look to contain the 67th-ranked rushing attack of Kentucky.
