The No.4-seeded Louisville Cardinals and No.7-seeded Michigan State Spartans meet for an opportunity to move on to the Final Four. Action begins at 2:20 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 29 and can be seen on CBS.
The Cardinals come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, topping NC State 75-65 in the Sweet 16. Montrezl Harrell played a pivotal role, recording his 12th double-double of the season with 20 points and seven rebounds. The Spartans, meanwhile, are coming off a 62-58 win against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16. Marvin Clark Jr. had a good game for Michigan State, registering 14 points, three rebounds, and two assists.
In terms of eFG%, this game will match strength against strength when the Spartans have possession. Their upper-echelon offense is ranked 35th in the nation in that metric at 53.8%, while Louisville is ninth-best in the nation in eFG% defense (43.3%).
Michigan State is a slim two-point favorite over Louisville. The Cardinals come into this game 27-8 Straight Up (SU) and 14-19-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Cardinals have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 60.6 points during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 68.9 points per game.
As for their opponent, the Spartans have a record of 21-16 ATS and 26-11 SU. The Spartans are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking 10th in Division I at 1.45. The Spartans average 63.0 points allowed per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 68.3 points per game during that span. The Spartans have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the nation at .397. Defensive rebounding is an area where Michigan State has excelled. The Spartans average 25.3 defensive rebounds per game, making them one of the best in the nation.
This game marks the season’s first head-to-head clash between these two. Their previous game was a Spartans victory, bringing the head-to-head record to an even 1-1 SU over their most recent meetings. They are also even ATS in their most recent games (1-1). Neither team held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers in a single game during this span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Lville, ATS Winner – Lville
Notes
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Michigan State averages 71.2 points per game this season. Louisville is one of the best teams in points allowed, giving up just 59.4 points per game (ranked 20th).
Louisville has allowed an average of 56.8 points per home game this season. Michigan State averages 68.0 points per away game, ranking 80th in scoring.
The Louisville Cardinals have the best defense in the country, giving up just 130.5 points per 100 possessions. The Michigan State Spartans rank 37th in offense, scoring 110.7 points in the same number of possessions.
Louisville has an average field goal percentage of 43.1%. Michigan State is an even 6-6 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
Louisville attempts an average of 18.5 three pointers per game and Michigan State attempts 19.6. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Louisville Cardinals have a dazzling 12-2 record while the Michigan State Spartans have a 9-6 record.
The Michigan State Spartans rank 10th with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.45, while the Louisville Cardinals rank outside the top 100 at 188th with an A/TO of .99.
Louisville, the 21st-ranked team in rebounding, registers an average of 38.2 rebounds per game. Michigan State ranks 33rd with 37.8.
Michigan State ranks 101st in offensive rebounds, while Louisville ranks at 51st in defensive rebounds.
