The No.4-seeded Louisville Cardinals challenge the No.8-seeded NC State Wolfpack in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament at Carrier Dome. Action begins at 7:37 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 27.
The Cardinals played well in their last game, topping Northern Iowa 66-53 in the third round. Despite the loss, Montrezl Harrell earned his 12th double-double this season with 14 points and seven assists. The Wolfpack, meanwhile, are coming off a 71-68 win against Villanova in the third round. Ralston Turner led the game in scoring with 16 points.
Baskets could be hard to come by as Louisville ranks third in the nation, allowing just 130.5 points per 100 possessions, while NC State is 26th (153.4). The Wolfpack should also expect to protect the ball well. They rank 33rd at avoiding errors (TO% of 16.4%). Conversely, the Cardinals force the 64th-fewest turnovers in the nation (opponents’ TO% of 32.1%).
This is the second game of the season between these two teams, with the Wolfpack winning the first matchup 74-65. Despite the loss, Wayne Blackshear had a standout performance with 19 points, four rebounds, one assist, and four three-pointers.
Louisville is a three-point favorite against NC State and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at 129 points. The Cardinals come into this game 26-8 Straight Up (SU) and 13-19-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Expect to see a lot of second-chance opportunities for Louisville in this matchup, which is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 12.8 offensive boards per game. The Cardinals have really locked down opponents on the defensive end, ranking 17th in the country with a .387 opponent field-goal percentage. Opponents have consistently had their shots rejected by the Cardinals, ranking 11th in the country in blocks per game with 5.5.
As for their opponent, the Wolfpack have a record of 17-14-1 ATS and 22-13 SU. NC State performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning a 7-3 record. Defensive rebounding is an area where NC State has excelled. The Wolfpack average 25.3 defensive rebounds per game, making them one of the best in the nation.
In their previous meeting this season, NC State beat Louisville, bumping its SU record over their most recent meetings to 1-0. The Wolfpack also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 1-0. Neither team held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers in a single game during this span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Lville, ATS Winner – NCSU, O/U – Over
Notes
In its last game, NC State lost by a margin of 24 points. Louisville is 7-0 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. NC State has a 4-1 record in blowouts.
The Louisville Cardinals have the best defense in the country, giving up just 130.5 points per 100 possessions. The NC State Wolfpack rank 66th in offense, scoring 107.7 points in the same number of possessions.
Louisville has an average field goal percentage of 43.1%. NC State is a losing 3-7 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Louisville Cardinals rank higher based on their field goal percentage (201st) than their effective field goal percentage (231st). The NC State Wolfpack rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (175th) than their field goal percentage (180th).
Louisville ranks 21st in rebounds per game with 38.2 and NC State ranks 24th with 38.1 rebounds per game.
Louisville ranks 51st in defensive rebounding. When it comes to offensive rebounds, NC State ranks 55th.
Opponents have had an average turnover percentage of 23.8% when playing NC State this season. Louisville is undefeated this season (3-0) when its TO% is 23.8% or higher.
