The 17th ranked Louisville Cardinals will do battle with the Purdue Boilermakers in their season opener Saturday night from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The game is slated to begin on September 2nd at 7:30 p.m. EST and can be seen on the FOX Network. The Cardinal head into this match as a heavy 24.5 point favorite and the contest’s total rests at 68.5.
The Louisville Cardinals finished off 2016 with a 9-4 record with a 7-1 mark in ACC play. Unfortunately, the Cardinals looked weak down the stretch and fell 29-9 to LSU in the Citrus Bowl. Conversely, the Purdue Boilermakers struggled last season, going 3-9 with a 1-8 record in conference play. They enjoyed the bowl games via the television like you and I did.
(17) Louisville Cardinals
The Louisville Cardinals were the surprise team in the league last season. The Cardinals recorded nine wins and produced the Heisman winner in quarterback Lamar Jackson. Well, Jackson is back after a season in which he produced 51 touchdowns and put Louisville on his back often.
Overall, the amazing quarterback threw the football around the field for 3,453 yards and ran it for another 1,571. Altogether, he had 21 trips to the end zone via his feet and 30 strikes through the air. He also only threw nine picks. It’s a no-brainer that the Boilermakers will be keying in on Lamar Jackson on Saturday.
The 2016 Heisman trophy winner will not have his top receivers to throw the ball to in 2017. Although, Louisville will get back wide out Jaylen Smith. Smith did his part last season as the third or fourth option. He was able to bring in 599 receiving yards last season with six scores.
Tail back Brandon Radcliff also departed to the NFL. Now, senior running back Jeremy Smith is back to help compliment Lamar Jackson and the Louisville rushing attack. He recorded 382 yards and eight touchdowns in 2016. If the Cardinals young wide receivers can develop into reliable targets then this offense should be productive once again.
The Cardinals have some area of concerns, especially on their defensive front. To help, Louisville does get back linebacker Chucky Williams who had an outstanding 2016 season.
Throughout the year, he had a team-high 107 tackles with four picks and two sacks. Head coach Bobby Petrino also added a new defensive coordinator in Peter Sirmon. Sirmon is a former NFL player who hopes to ignite the Cardinals D right out of the gate.
Purdue Boilermakers
There really is nowhere to go but up for the Purdue Boilermakers in 2017. With several key pieces returning on both sides of the ball, they hope to improve on what was a pretty rough year in the BIG-10. Case in point, the Boilermakers have won three games or less games in each of the last four seasons. Man, where’s Drew Brees when you need him.
Instead of Drew Brees, the Boilermakers will get starting quarterback David Blough. Blough could be poised for a big year if he can quit throwing the ball to the other team. In 2016, he accumulated 3,353 yards passing with 25 touchdowns and an inflated 21 interceptions. To Blough’s credit, he was running for his life in all three of the games I personally watched last season.
Purdue also gets back all of their running backs which includes Markell Jones who led the team with 616 rushing yards and four scores. Running mate Brian Lankford-Johnson returns to take another swing in the ring. Last season, he contributed another 414 yards rushing and two more trips to the promised land.
The Boilermakers are thin at the wide receiver position. Apparently, the weight might very well fall on tight ends Cole Herdman and Brycen Hopkins. Last year, the two combined for 45 catches for 527 yards. If no receiver steps up as a number one target, these two could be featured prominently as the season moves forward.
Purdue’s defense returns several key contributors which should allow them to show some improvement over last years squad. The Boilermakers allowed 38 points seven or more times in 2016. Leading tackler from last season Markus Bailey is back after making 97 tackles and he also led the team with four interceptions. The Boilermakers also added to their secondary by bringing in Josh Okonye from Wake Forest.
Prediction
Even with all the hype surrounding the return of Lamar Jackson, I’ll be taking the Boilermakers to cover the +24.5 points in this one. Here’s why. Purdue is going to be an improved team this season with quarterback David Blough returning after a solid sophomore season. They also have some reliable tail backs returning to keep defenses honest.
Furthermore, the Boilermakers allowed an average of only 207 passing yards per game last season, plus they added to their secondary in the off-season. For those reasons, I think they can put up enough points to hang around for awhile. Also, the Cardinals did lose a lot of key pieces that made life a lot easier for Lamar Jackson last year. Even with the new talent, I believe it will take Louisville time to gel.
Half points can be huge, and believe it or not, this might be the case as the game unfolds in the second half. That’s another little tid-bit that helped me make my play on the line. The over/under is pretty high but let’s face it, it’s Lamar Jackson that will have the ball for his fair share of the time. Still, not enough experience at the receiving level is why I’m staying away from this total. Louisville wins in a closer affair than expected 37-26.
Trends
The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
The Over is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 games in September.
The Under is 4-0-1 in the Cardinals last 5 neutral site games.
The Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
The Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
The Over is 4-1 in the Boilermakers last 5 games overall.
The getmoresports.com NCAA College Football Throwdown Podcast will be returning to the air on August 24th. We will be highlighting the first five games on August 26th of the 2017 NCAA College Football season. That will be the first of three installments leading into the first week of the season. We also we will be covering our expectations for the Heisman Trophy front runners as well as predictions for conference winners and team totals.
Our second NCAA College Football Throwdown is penciled in for August 29th. In that installment, we will be discussing all the games that will be played on August 31st and the 1st of September.
Our third segment will officially be airing on August 31st. In this edition of the NCAA College Football Throwdown, we will be covering all the relevant games for Sept 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
