The Wake Forest Demon Deacons look to end a three-game skid when they host the Louisville Cardinals at BB&T Stadium in some ACC Conference action. The division battle is set to begin on Saturday, October 28th at 12:20 p.m. EST. The game can be watched on the ACC Network for your viewing pleasure. As of now, the Cardinals are a -3 point favorite and the contest’s total sits at 62.
The Louisville Cardinals are heading into this battle with Wake Forest hot off a win against Florida State 31-27 on the road. The victory snapped a two-game losing streak and put the Cardinals at 5-3 on the year. Louisville’s offense is humming of late and is ranked fourth in the country. Unfortunately, their defense has taken a few steps back along the journey.
Last week, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons were run over by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 38-24. The loss was the third in their last three games. Nevertheless, the Demon Deacons are still above the .500 mark with a 4-3 record. Evidentally, their 4-0 start was a bit misleading as they picked up wins against teams that aren’t very good. Once the meat of their schedule started, they have struggled to stop teams while sputtering on offense.
Louisville Cardinals (5-3)
The Louisville Cardinals came to play last week at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. The defense performed well against the Seminoles for most of the match. It was also business as usual for their potent offense that once again put up over 30 points in a game.
The defending Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson just keeps on steamrolling over opposing defenses in 2017. In fact, he is on pace to equal his amazing output from last season’s impressive run. Against the Florida State defense, Jackson threw for 156 yards and a score. More importantly, the best dual-threat signal-caller in the game rushed for another 178 yards on 27 carries with another score.
Overall, his numbers are truly mind-boggling. Jackson has tossed the rock around for 2,478 yards with 17 touchdowns and only five picks. Furthermore, Jackson also has run the pigskin for 868 yards and eleven more scores. That is 28 total trips to the back of the end zone just eight games into the year.
Tailback Reggie Bonnafon teams up with his quarterback to provide the Cardinals with the nation’s 27th-ranked rushing attack. Altogether, Louisville pounds the ball at opposing front sevens for 219 yards per contest. Bonnafon is no slouch, running for 310 yards on only 52 carries and four scores.
Dez Fitzpatrick appears to be the next in line to become one of the outstanding wideouts in Louisville. The speedy freshman has caught a team-high 34 catches for 554 yards and seven trips to the end zone. He is not alone, teammate Jaylen Smith is right behind with 33 catches for 546 yards and two more scores. Two other pass catchers have combined for 43 grabs and five more touchdowns.
The Cardinals’ defense made some big plays in the win over the Seminoles which included two interceptions. However, they did allow 403 total yards of offense to an average Florida State squad. The Louisville defense has been struggling this season, especially when defending the pass. Their secondary sits at 84th in the nation (233 ypg).
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-3)
Well, it is put up or shut up time for the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in this one. They started their season by beating up on some weaker teams plus a signature win over a depleted Florida State squad. After that, they have found themselves in the loss column in three straight games against stronger opponents. This match-up should be a good litmus test for a team that could go one way or the other.
The Demon Deacons only mustered up a field goal in the second half in their 38-24 road loss to Georgia Tech last weekend. Still, quarterback John Wolford played well in the defeat. He completed 17 of his 30 passes for 252 yards with two touchdowns against one interception.
The senior quarterback won’t put up big numbers on a run-heavy team but he is making the most of the chances he gets. Overall, he has amassed 1,199 passing yards with a solid 10 scores to only two picks. The athletic player has also added 327 rushing yards with five more trips to the promised land.
The problem with the Wake Forest running game is they haven’t found that signature back to complement their running signal-caller. Four rushers have combined for 196 carries for just over 800 yards and four touchdowns. Akeem Byrd leads the group with 55 carries for just over 300 yards and a score.
With a run-first approach to their offense, Wake Forest doesn’t boast very big numbers in their receiving corps. Although, wideout Greg Dortch is having himself a pretty good campaign. The go-to pass catcher has reeled in 43 passes for 555 yards and five touchdowns. Every stat just mentioned are team-highs. In fact, not one other teammate has even caught over 20 passes. With that being said, they do have four others that have eclipsed the 100-yard mark for another eight scores.
The Wake Forest defense fell apart in the second half in the loss to Georgia Tech. The unit surrendered 25 points 495 total yards which are well above their average of 361 yards. Even so, this is a stronger defensive team that can make it tough on opposing offenses. Now, the unit is holding teams to 19.7 points a game (26th), and only 179 through the air (19th). Their 89th-ranked rush defense will have its hands full when Lamar Jackson heads into town on Saturday.
Prediction
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are a field goal underdog at home in a must-win game to gain some respect. sure, the win over the Seminoles was nice but we all know that the injury-ridden club is not running on all cylinders in 2017. Fortunately, they do have a decent defense that might be able to contain Lamar Jackson at times during the game.
Louisville has also shown the ability to give up a decent amount of points to teams they’ve played this year. Like Wake Forest, their win last week over Florida State didn’t impress me. One thing is for sure, they will have the best player on the field for all of their offensive snaps and that should be enough for the Cardinals to win their second in a row. I fully expect this game to be close so if it moves to 3.5 in favor of Louisville, I’d back off. As of now, it’s only three points so that is the play I’ll suggest.
The total is 62 and I really believe that that could go either way. Here’s why. The Cardinals have underperformed this season defensively. Their performance last week is skewed considering the offense they faced in Tallahassee. Also, the Demon Deacons struggled to stop the run and that is not good when Mr. Jackson will be handling the ball every snap. Then again, Wake Forest’s offense isn’t anything special so the two could be a complete wash. Just stay away from this over/under and take the complete team with the better athletes to find a way to win by a field goal. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
The Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
The Over is 4-1 in the Cardinals last 5 conference games.
The Demon Deacons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
The Demon Deacons are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
The Under is 4-1 in the Demon Deacons last 5 conference games.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
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