Invictus Gaming will look to shake off a disappointing performance over the weekend and salvage a third-place finish in the 2018 LPL Spring Split when they take on Rogue Warriors on Tuesday. Despite finishing the regular season with an 18-1 record, Invictus was unable to defeat Royal Never Give Up in the semifinals last Saturday. It was a gut-wrenching defeat, encapsulated by star mid laner Rookie breaking down into tears immediately after the loss.
A third-place finish would be considered a success for the Rogue Warriors considering the way they have played over the last month. They limped across the finish line at the end of the regular season and barely held on to defeat Bilibili Gaming to get to the semifinals.
2018 LPL China Spring Split Third Place Match Betting Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
Invictus Gaming -476
Rogue Warriors +331
Of the two sides, Invictus certainly looked better in their semifinals loss. IG dominated the laning phase in the first four games of their five-game tilt with RNG. They were able to press their advantages and run up big gold leads, but a couple key mistakes hurt them each time.
The first mistake came in the draft phase. They allowed Kai’Sa to go through the draft in each of the first three games of the series and Uzi punished them for it. He was able to rack up insane numbers on the overpowered champion in the mid to late game, leading RNG back from a deficit in two of the three games. It was the exact same mistake that both Afreeca Freecs and MVP both made in the LCK earlier in the week, and IG were punished for the error. By the time they banned Kai’Sa away, they were already down 2-1 in the series and needed to win the next two games in order to advance.
The second error was a tactical one, but it worked in conjunction with the first. AD Carry JackeyLove is a star in the making, yet he was very underwhelming in his first postseason performance. He was caught out of position in crucial team fights more than once and was punished for it by RNG. Once he was out of the picture, RNG was able to turn the tide and used those moments to get back on the front foot.
As for Rogue Warriors, they continued to underperform in comparison to how they started the season. They were thoroughly outplayed in their 3-1 loss to Edward Gaming in the other semifinal. EDG’s class was apparent throughout the series, and there was little doubt that they would advance after beating Rogue Warriors at their own game. All split long, Rogue Warriors main strategy has been to funnel as much gold to AD Carry Smlz as possible and ask him to carry the day. EDG used this exact same strategy against them and executed it better.
On paper, it’s hard to see a way that Rogue Warriors can pull off the upset. There are two potential advantages for them though. Smlz is a more experienced AD Carry than JackeyLove and can win games for his team if they are relatively even with IG in the late game. He is unlikely to make the same positioning mistakes that his counterpart did in the semifinals, and that gives Rogue Warriors a potential edge.
Additionally, a great night from Mouse could be enough for the team to win too. Mouse has had an up and down career, but he has had some incredible performances in the past. IG’s top laner Duke had a very good series filling in for TheShy against RNG, but he is not a hard carry at this point of his career.
In the end, a 3-1 win for Invictus feels right to me. They were obviously devastated after coming up short in the playoffs after a great regular season, but they are clearly the better team. As long as they can push the loss out of their heads they will get the victory.
