The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide play the 19th-ranked LSU Tigers in a mammoth SEC Conference showdown in Tuscaloosa, Alabama this weekend. The match-up is scheduled to go down on Saturday, November 4th at 8 p.m. EST. The mega-game can be seen on CBS for your evening college football entertainment. Las Vegas has the Crimson Tide penciled in as a -21 point favorite and the game’s total sits at 48.5 points.
On October 21st, the LSU Tigers found themselves on the road against the Ole Miss Rebels. In that contest, the Tigers flexed some offensive muscle and put up 40 points in a 40-24 victory. LSU turned to their star running back who literally ran all over the Rebels’ defense. As a result, the Tigers sit with a 3-1 conference record and are 6-2 overall.
For the Alabama Crimson Tide, it was business as usual last time out against the Tennessee Volunteers in Tuscaloosa. In that meeting, the Tide rolled over the Vols 45-7 in a game in which their starters barely played over two quarters. Like last year, Alabam is undefeated in conference play at 5-0 and 8-0 overall.
When these two schools met up in Death Valley last season, Alabama shut out LSU in a 10-0 grudge-match. The victory was the Crimson Tide’s sixth-straight over LSU. They also have taken eight of the last 10 games against the Tigers.
(19) LSU Tigers (6-2)
Well, it appears that the leg injuries that have hampered once Heisman hopeful Derrius Guise might be a thing of the past. LSU fed their talented back the ball early and often against the Rebels and it paid off in spades. The Tigers posted their second-highest scoring mark of the season and laid 27 second-half points on the board to get the job done.
Tailback Derrius Guise looked like he did for most of 2016. The powerful but nimble back toted the rock for a season-high 22 carries for a dominating 276 yards and a touchdown. He wasn’t alone because teammate Darrel Williams also scampered for another 103 yards on 22 carries of his own. Together, the two tailbacks have rushed for just under 1,200 yards with 11 trips to the back of the end zone.
Quarterback Danny Etling continues to play a smart brand of football and not cost his team with his mistakes. He performed exactly that way against Ole Miss in his last outing. In that game, he tossed the pigskin around for 200 yards and two touchdowns. Altogether, the senior thrower has accumulated 1,452 passing yards with a 60 percent completion percentage. More importantly, Etling has thrown for nine touchdowns and only one pick.
The one place that the Tiger’s offense really suffers is in the pass-catching department. In fact, their leading receiver has only caught 22 passes for the year. D.J. chark is that guy, taking those grabs for 535 yards but no scores. There are two other teammates that have caught 30 passes combined but on Foster Moreau has recorded a touchdown (3).
On defense, LSU hasn’t been as dominating as in the past. With that being said, they still are pretty dang good. Their secondary is their strength, ranking 13th in the country by allowing only 173 yards a match. The front seven isn’t bad but they have been run on a bit by opposing schools. Currently, the LSU run-stop sits 45th in the nation (147 ypg).
(1) Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0)
The Alabama Crimson Tide have had one close contest this year and that was against Texas A&M (27-19). Other than that, every other game has been a blowout by 30 points or more. That also includes their total destruction of the Tennessee Volunteers at home 45-7. Apparently, Vegas thinks that could very well be the case again because they have them as 21 favorites in this conference showdown.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a machine in 2017. He also made quick work of the Vols’ defense last time out. In that contest, Hurts completed 13 of 21 passes for just under 200 yards and a score. The dual-threat signal-caller also is one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation. He only put up 14 yards in the Tennessee game but has totaled 954 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns on the year. Through the air, Hurts has completed 63 percent of his passes for 1,223 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception.
Running back Damien Harris compliments Jalen Hurts quite nicely. The strong runner has carried the ball 81 times out of the backfield for 697 yards and 10 scores. Complimenting them both is the bruising tailback, Bo Scarbrough. In 2017, Scarbrough has rumbled his way for 377 yards and six trips to the promised land.
When Jalen Hurts looks to throw the ball downfield, there is little question as to who he is looking for. The Crimson Tide’s leading receiver Calvin Ridley has had to do it all this season. Through the first eight games, Ridley has reeled in a team-high 41 catches for 523 yards and two scores. In fact, not one other Alabama wideout has even registered more than 12 catches.
Defensively, the Crimson Tide are once again the top defense in FBS football. Their front half sits first in the country, allowing only 68 rushing yards a game. The secondary isn’t far behind, sitting in 10th (169 ypg). All totaled, the unit is holding opposing teams to only 9.8 points a contest (1st), and only 237 total yards (2nd). Obviously, head coach Nick Saban’s defense reloaded after sending six starters from 2016 to the NFL.
Prediction
I have to admit I was shocked to see the LSU Tigers as a 21 point underdog coming into Tuscaloosa on Saturday. I know that the Crimson Tide have been dominating teams all season long but this is Alabama/LSU. Besides, if Derrius Guice is back to 100 percent, that means the Tigers should be able to move the ball a little bit. Also, the Tigers secondary is very talented and the Tide struggle to throw the football down the field.
That fact means that Alabama should be somewhat one-dimensional at home against LSU. The 21 points are just too much for me to bet against so I’m going to suggest that my readers think the dog in this contest and take the Tigers to cover the three touchdown line.
As for the over/under, the two schools managed a whopping 10 points combined in their last game against one another. So, the total dropping from 51.5 to 48.5 doesn’t surprise me. Either way, I think the cover play is too good to touch the total play in this SEC Conference game. Just take LSU at +21 and who cares if they combine for 36 points. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
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Trends
The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
The Under is 11-4-1 in the Tigers last 16 conference games.
The Crimson Tide are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
The Under is 4-0 in the Crimson Tide last 4 games following a bye week.
The Road team is 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings.
