A couple of schools that prefer to deploy their running games, Head Coach Ed Orgeron and the No. 9 LSU Tigers (-12.5) are gearing up to face off against their in-conference counterpart Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. The matchup is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to SEC Network.
LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview
In this Saturday Southeastern game, LSU is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 12.5 points. The Tigers are also receiving -525 moneyline odds while the Razorbacks are +360. If one program can create a bunch of points early it’ll produce a worthy live betting scenario. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 47.5 points.
The game’s O/U has not changed after it was initially posted at 47.5. Having said that, the opening line was 14 and sharp bettors are siding with the Razorbacks.
The profitable Tigers have gained 7.4 units so far and are 5-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-4. The Razorbacks have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 11.8 units. The team is 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-5.
The Tigers have gone 7-2 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against conference opponents. The Razorbacks are 2-7 SU overall and 0-5 SU in conference play.
The Tigers hope to get back on track after a 29-0 shutout to Alabama last week. The passing attack left much to be desired as Joe Burrow completed just 18 passes on 35 attempts for 184 yards and one interception. As a team, the Tigers produced a grand total of 12 rushing yards in the defeat.
Arkansas just lost a 45-31 shootout to Vanderbilt two weeks ago. The team’s defense allowed the Commodores to run for 250 yards on 49 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Ke’Shawn Vaughn shredded the defense, recording 172 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 26 attempts for Vanderbilt. For Arkansas, Ty Storey completed 23-of-36 passes for 240 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Rakeem Boyd (113 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) led the ground game in the defeat while Cheyenne O’Grady (six receptions, 83 yards, one TD) and Chase Hayden (five catches, 17 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
LSU has run the ball on 59.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Arkansas has an overall rush percentage of 56.1 percent. The Tigers have rushed for 171 yards/game (including 163 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 19 scores via handoffs this year. The Razorbacks are putting up 176 rush yards per game (177 in conference) and have 11 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Razorbacks ought to have an advantage in terms of RB effectiveness. Their backfield has produced 4.6 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 4.0 to opponents. The Tigers have registered 4.1 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.2 to opponents.
The Tigers offensive scheme has tallied 192 yards per contest in the air overall (208 per game versus conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Razorbacks have put up 202 pass yards per outing (196.8 in the SEC) and have 15 total pass scores.
Defensively, LSU should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 147 yards and throw for 210 yards per game. The Arkansas defense has allowed 259.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 153.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Tigers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.80 to opposing QBs, while the Razorbacks have given up a 7.39 ANY/A.
Offensively, Burrow has amassed 1,599 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 53 percent of his 230 attempts with six passing scores and three interceptions. Burrow has a 5.86 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 2.59 over the past two outings.
The Tigers have tried to maintain tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Justin Jefferson (534 yards, two TDs), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (489 rush yards, five rush TDs, 44 receiving yards) and Nick Brossette (645 rush yards, nine rush TDs) have brought significant production to the LSU offensive scheme.
On the other sideline, Ty Storey has connected on 104-of-178 passes for 1,223 yards, nine TDs and seven INTs. Storey’s ANY/A stands at 5.49 for the year and 4.79 over his last two games.
The Razorbacks also like to leverage their backfield. Cheyenne O’Grady (249 receiving yards, four TDs) has gotten involved lately, but Rakeem Boyd (516 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Chase Hayden (209 rush yards, one rush TD) have seen quite a few action recently.
These two schools faced off last year with the final result being a 33-10 win for LSU.
Free NCAA Betting Tip: LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks
SU Winner – Arkansas, ATS Winner – Arkansas, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Over/Under for LSU’s last game was 51.5. The under cashed in the team’s 29-0 defeat to Alabama.
LSU has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 1.8 over its last two.
Arkansas has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.9 over its past two.
Both teams have lost four fumbles this season.
In its last three games, LSU is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Arkansas’ last outing was set at 51.5. The over cashed in the team’s 45-31 defeat to Vanderbilt.
In its last three matchups, Arkansas is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Tigers offense has recorded five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Razorbacks have accounted for six such plays.
The LSU defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Arkansas has given up 11 such plays.
The LSU offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Arkansas has created 12 such runs.
Both teams have allowed nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Tigers have given up 45 running plays of 10+ yards while the Razorbacks have given up 52 such plays.
The Arkansas defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this year. LSU has registered 19 sacks.
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