No. 7 UCF Knights are entering the Playstation Fiesta Bowl as considerable dogs against the No. 11 LSU Tigers. Kickoff for this key game is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET and ESPN has the TV rights.
LSU Tigers at UCF Knights Betting Preview
UCF is a live dog and is currently getting 7.5 points in this matchup. The Tigers are also receiving -330 moneyline odds while the Knights are +250. Should one squad gets out in front in the early stages it’ll create a nice betting scenario in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points.
The line opened at 8 while the O/U hasn’t changed since it opened at 54.5.
Each of these teams has posted a positive return this year as the Tigers have recorded 7.4 units while the Knights are ahead 7.0 units.
The perfect Tigers are 9-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Knights are 12-0 SU.
The Tigers fell to Texas A&M 74-72 in a nailbiter where Joe Burrow completed 25-of-38 passes for 270 yards and three touchdowns. Burrow (100 yards on 29 rush attempts, three TDs) also led the ground attack and was complemented by Nick Brossette (61 yards on 16 carries, one TD). Justin Jefferson (five receptions, 63 yards, one TD) and Foster Moreau (four catches, 51 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
UCF is coming off of a 56-41 win over Memphis. Darriel Mack Jr. completed 19-of-27 passes for 348 yards and two touchdowns. Greg McCrae (206 yards on 24 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Mack Jr. (59 yards on 18 carries, four TDs) led the running game while Gabriel Davis (six receptions, 101 yards) and Dredrick Snelson (four catches, 120 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
When analyzing offensive play-calling, each of these teams has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. LSU has run the ball on 59.1 percent of its offensive possessions while UCF has an overall rush percentage of 61.0. The Tigers have rushed for 175 yards per game and have 29 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Knights are putting up 277 rushing yards per game and have 41 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Knights might be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has yielded only 14 sacks while their D-line has registered 27 sacks. The Tigers O-line has given up 33 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 29 times.
The Tigers offensive scheme has averaged 215 yards through the air overall and has 13 passing scores so far. The Knights have recorded 269 pass yards per contest and have 28 total pass TDs.
LSU has allowed opponents to run for an average of 139 yards and pass for 207 yards per game. The UCF defense has given up 196.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 227.4 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Tigers have given up an ANY/A of 4.24 to opposing QBs, while the Knights are allowing an ANY/A of 4.55.
Offensively, Burrow has put up 2,193 passing yards this year, and has completed 178-of-317 attempts with 10 passing scores and four interceptions. He’s got a 5.83 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.81 over the last two outings.
We expect the Tigers to control the clock by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Nick Brossette (853 rush yards, 12 rush TDs) and Lanard Fournette (61 rush yards, 45 receiving yards) have been significant focal points in the offensive game scripts for LSU.
Darriel Mack Jr. has managed to complete 35-of-56 passes for 441 yards, two TDs and zero INTs for UCF. His ANY/A sits at 7.75 for the season and 10.74 over his last two outings.
The Knights also prefer to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Greg McCrae (114 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Dredrick Snelson (four rush yards, 604 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Gabriel Davis (687 receiving yards and five TDs) have gotten quite a few action lately.
Free Pick: LSU Tigers at UCF Knights
SU Winner – LSU, ATS Winner – LSU, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The LSU D has 29 sacks on the year while UCF has 27.
The UCF offense has lost six fumbles in 2018 while LSU has lost seven.
The Tigers offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Knights have accounted for 13 such plays.
The LSU defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UCF has given up four such plays.
The LSU offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while UCF has created 32 such runs.
The Tigers defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Knights have given up 22 such runs.
LSU has produced 4.2 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.6 over its last two.
UCF has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.2 over its past two.
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