Unlike Sam Darnold and Josh Allen, the path isn’t clear for Baker Mayfield to take over as the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, in spite of his draft position and obvious superiority at the quarterback spot over presumptive starter Tyrod Taylor. Nope, head coach Hue Jackson made the decree early in the offseason that Taylor was his guy and he’s sticking with it. It’s just that kind of tenacity that leads to a 1-31 head coaching record.
Take a look at Baker Mayfield’s over/under odds for total starts from BetDSI.
Over 4.5 (-115)
Under 4.5 (-115)
Here’s the thing about Taylor. It’s not that he’s a bad quarterback. He’s actually pretty good. There are 32 NFL teams in the league, but there aren’t 32 franchise quarterbacks in the world. I’d classify Taylor as a high-end back up. He’s a guy that can win games, keep your team in the hunt all year, but ultimately accomplish nothing at the end of the season. It’s pretty much what he did for the Buffalo Bills for the last few years.
“I would be remiss if I did not say Tyrod Taylor (has impressed me) and what he has done on this football team since the day that he walked in the building at practice,” Jackson recently told the media. “His leadership, how he has conducted himself here and trying to do everything he can to get this organization winning,”
Mayfield, on the other hand, looks like a franchise quarterback and was drafted to be one. Now, that doesn’t man he’ll pan out. The odds of first round pick quarterbacks actually turning into consistent NFL starters is probably barely 50 percent.
Can Taylor “get the Browns winning?” It depends on what you’d count as “winning.” Will they go 0-16 this season with Taylor at the helm? Probably not. Will they compete for a playoff spot with Taylor? Definitely not.
You could say exactly the same for Mayfield, but handing Mayfield the keys at least prepares the team for its future. It’s why Todd Bowles has named Sam Darnold his starter — not for 2018, but for 2019.
Of course Bowles has a lot more job security than Jackson. With either Taylor or Mayfield at quarterback, the Browns have just one winnable game in their first six, a Week 3 tilt against Darnold, Bowles and the New York Jets. Taylor’s future as a starter with the Browns all rests on that game.
If Cleveland starts 1-4, Jackson will likely stick with him to try to keep the wolves at bay. After all, he hired Todd Haley as his offensive coordinator this offseason and owner Jimmy Haslam should have no issue firing Jackson and sliding Haley right into that spot if the disaster continues.
After that 1-4 start, Cleveland will only be picked to competitive against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the rest of the way. That means by midseason, this is a 1-7 team at best and there will be no reason at that point not to start Mayfield. The over still looks like the best bet to me.
