Of all the first round quarterbacks that were expected to compete for a starting job as a rookie, none of them had a tougher draw than Josh Rosen. Before April’s NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals signed free agent quarterback Sam Bradford to a two-year, $40 million contract. The Cardinals wanted to draft a signal-caller, but had to prepare just in case one didn’t fall their way. Unfortunately for Rosen, he landed in their laps and right on the Arizona bench.
Here are the over/under odds for Josh Rosen’s total starts in 2019 from BetDSI.
Over 4.5 (-160)
Under 4.5 (+130)
I’ve already presented you the mythical license to print money with Sam Darnold’s over of +/- 6.5. Now I’m sliding you another one, with one pretty significant caveat. If Bradford doesn’t get hurt, there’s no way Rosen starts more than two games this season. The under is the bet to make.
If you’re betting the over for Rosen, you’re basically betting on Bradford getting hurt. That’s the only way Rosen sees the field. As good a prospect as Rosen might have been coming out of UCLA, he was nowhere near the draft prospect that Bradford was out of Okalahoma in 2010.
As a pro, the only thing that’s kept Bradford from solidifying himself as a franchise quarterback is horrid coaching from Steve Spagnuolo, Jeff Fisher and Chip Kelly. When he finally did end up in a good situation with the Minnesota Vikings, he injured his knee again. Bradford is 35-45-1 as a starter with a 62.5 career completion percentage, 19,049 passing yards, 101 touchdowns and 51 interceptions. He’s accurate, he can make his reads, his arm is strong and he doesn’t turn the ball over. In 2016 Bradford set an NFL record with a season-long 71.6 completion percentage. He threw five picks that entire year.
How injury prone is Bradford? It’s actually not as bad as people think, but it’s still not good. In his eight-year career, he’s started at least 14 games four times. Of those full seasons, he’s never led a team to fewer than seven wins, in spite of the rosters and head coaches around him.
The problem for Bradford has been stacking up healthy seasons. He’s only had two in a row since he came into the league. If that trend holds, he’ll actually be fine this season since his knee cost him all but two starts last year.
This Arizona team is better than people are expecting them to be. If they were out of the playoff hunt early, there’d be no reason for head coach Steve Wilks not to toss Rosen in there to get some experience — but they won’t be. It’s why Wilks has been so careful with Bradford in the preseason. He knows what he has and wants to make the most of it.
While I don’t think the Cardinals will make the playoffs, I do think they’ll be in the mix until at least December. That means Bradford is going nowhere and Rosen better get used to playing Pokemon or Angry Birds on his Surface tablet. I say bet the under.
