For the third time in four years, the CFP Championship will pit the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Clemson Tigers. This will be the rubber match between the two powerhouse programs as each side has won one national championship over the other. The key for Clemson during its two previous trips to the national championship was a phenomenal quarterback, and now Alabama has one too. Tua Tagovailoa has set the college football world on fire, and the Heisman Trophy runner-up is favored to lead Alabama to its sixth national championship in 11 seasons. Now, online sportsbook BetDSI is posing the question: Just how good will Tua be against Clemson on Monday night?
How many touchdowns will Tua Tagovailoa score in the CFP Championship?
Over 3.5 -130
Under 3.5 +100
Tagovailoa has been amazing this year, just ask any one of Alabama’s opponents. He has made Alabama even more deadly than they have been over the years. The Tide haven’t had many weaknesses over the years, but the one way teams had been able to beat them in the past was to make the game a shootout. That’s how Clemson won its national championship and how Ole Miss upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
That’s no longer a recipe for success though. Tagovailoa’s presence made Alabama the second-best offense in college football during the regular season, and he has made sure the Crimson Tide can win a shootout too. Just look at his performance against Oklahoma in the CFP Semifinal. Tagovailoa threw just three incomplete passes and had one of his best games of the year in a 45-34 win.
This season, Tagovailoa was responsible for 46 touchdowns in 14 games. Those numbers don’t really show how incredible his performances were though. He didn’t play in the fourth quarter of a game until Alabama faced LSU in early November, and he did the vast majority of his damage before halftime. He showed what he could do over a full game with six touchdowns in a win over Auburn and four touchdowns in a win over Oklahoma.
However, as good as Tagovailoa has been this year, he has not faced a defense quite like Clemson. The Tigers were the top-rated unit in the country according to S&P+, and even without Dexter Lawrence, they turned Notre Dame’s offense into a punch line. The Irish managed to score just three points and could only muster 248 total yards of offense against Clemson’s defense.
Tagovailoa has had a difficult time against elite defenses like Clemson’s though. Georgia, LSU, and Mississippi State all had top 15 defenses, and those were his three worst games of the season. He managed three total touchdowns against LSU, while he was only responsible for one touchdown apiece against Mississippi State and Georgia.
This line is a little too high. While Tua has been great all year long, he has yet to show he can have a lot of success against the best defenses in the country. There is a lot of value in the under at this price.
