A couple of schools that like to mix in a lot of running plays, No. 19 Hawkeyes (-11) are preparing to welcome their Big 10 rival Maryland Terrapins to Iowa. The critical afternoon matchup starts at 12:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 is in line to broadcast the action.
Maryland Terrapins at Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview
Maryland is a big road underdog in this Big 10 matchup and is currently getting 11 points. The Terrapins are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Hawkeyes are -450. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 52.5 points. Based on how things are shaping up, this game may have some live betting possibilities.
The O/U has not moved after being set initially at 52.5. Having said that, the line opened at -14 and square bettors are hammering the Terrapins.
The disappointing Terrapins are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and are down 5.5 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 3-3. The Hawkeyes have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 4.0 units. The team is 5-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-2.
The Terrapins are 4-2 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Hawkeyes are 5-1 SU overall and are also 2-1 SU in conference play.
The Terps are coming off a resounding 34-7 victory over Rutgers last week. Kasim Hill completed only eight-of-17 passes for 76 yards and three touchdowns. Ty Johnson (132 yards on nine rushes, one TD) and Anthony McFarland (74 yards on nine carries) led the ground attack while Jahrvis Davenport (two receptions, 13 yards) and McFarland (two catches, eight yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Iowa just earned a 42-16 win over Indiana. The defensive secondary let the Hoosiers air it out for 263 yards. Ty Fryfogle had a productive outing in the loss for Indiana, accounting for 71 yards and a score on four catches. For Iowa, Nate Stanley completed 21-of-33 passes for 320 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. Toren Young (96 rushing yards on 19 attempts) and Mekhi Sargent (59 yards on 10 carries) spearheaded the running game as T.J. Hockenson (four receptions, 107 yards, two TDs) and Noah Fant (four catches, 101 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack in the win.
Maryland has run the ball on 67.4 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 70.8 percent across possessions in conference play. Iowa has an overall run percentage of 57.0 percent, and has rushed the ball 52.0 percent of the time against Big 10 opponents. The Terrapins have produced 245 rush yards/game (including 251 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Hawkeyes are totaling 156 rush yards per game (138 in conference) and have nine total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Hawkeyes could hold an edge in the trenches. Their offensive line has given up only six sacks while the D-line has logged 20 sacks. The Terrapins O-line has allowed 12 sacks and their defense has got to opposing QBs just 11 times.
The Terps offense has averaged 121 yards in the air overall (92 per game versus conference opposition) and has seven passing TDs so far. The Hawkeyes have put up 256 pass yards per game (296.7 in the Big 10) and have 15 total pass scores.
Maryland has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 126 yards and pass for 190 yards per game. The Iowa defense has allowed 200.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 81.5 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Terps have given up an ANY/A of 3.92 to opposing QBs, while the Hawkeyes are yielding an ANY/A of 4.18.
Offensively, Hill has put up 592 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 50-of-93 attempts with six scores through the air and only one interception. Hill’s got a 6.35 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 4.43 over the past two games.
Nate Stanley has completed 85-of-135 passes for 1,159 yards, 11 TDs and four INTs for Iowa. His ANY/A sits at 8.44 for the season and 9.89 over his last two outings.
These two conference foes did not get a chance to face each other in 2017.
RELATED: Week 8 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Prediction: Maryland Terrapins vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
SU Winner – Iowa, ATS Winner – Iowa, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Over/Under for Maryland’s previous game was 50.5. The under cashed in the team’s 34-7 victory over Rutgers.
Maryland has averaged 6.6 yards per carry over its past three contests and 5.7 over its last two.
Iowa has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 3.7 over its last two.
The Iowa offense has lost three fumbles this season while Maryland has lost two.
Over its last three matches, Maryland is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Iowa’s previous outing was 52. The over cashed in the 42-16 victory over Indiana.
In its last three games, Iowa is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The Terrapins offense has produced four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Hawkeyes have put up eight such plays.
The Maryland defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Iowa has given up two such plays.
The Maryland offense has created 18 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Iowa has created three such run.
The Terrapins defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Hawkeyes have given up one such run.
The Iowa defense has created 20 sacks on the year while Maryland has just 11.
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