The No.4-seeded Maryland Terrapins (26-6) play the No.5-seeded West Virginia Mountaineers (23-9) in the third round of the NCAA tournament at Nationwide Arena. The game gets underway at 8:40 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 22.
The Terrapins edged Valparaiso 65-62 in the second round. Jake Layman played well for the Terrapins, finishing with six points, 10 rebounds, and three assists. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, are coming off a 68-62 win over Buffalo in the second round. Devin Williams had a good game, recording 22 points and nine rebounds to claim his eighth double-double of the season.
Points could be at a premium in this matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses. Maryland ranks 14th in the nation in defensive efficiency (148.7), while West Virginia is 10th (145.4).
Maryland is a small one-point underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 137 points. The Terrapins look to build on their records of 28-6 Straight Up (SU) and 13-16-2 Against The Spread (ATS). The Terrapins are an exceptional shooting team from the line with 17.0 free throws made per game, one of the highest marks in Division I. As for the Maryland defense, teams have to fight for open shots against the Terrapins, who have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the country at .397. An area where the Terrapins are particularly strong is defensive rebounding where they average 25.9 defensive rebounds per game, 31st in Division I. Expect Maryland to have lots of opportunities at the line against the Mountaineers, who lead the nation with an average of 23.3 fouls per game.
On the other side, West Virginia has a SU record of 24-9 and an ATS record of 18-13. The Mountaineers are a force on the offensive glass, grabbing a Division I-best 16.8 offensive rebounds per game. Shifting to the other side of the court, they average 10.9 steals per game, good for tops in the nation.
This is the first meeting of the season for Maryland and West Virginia. The last time they played West Virginia came out on top, moving its SU record against Maryland to 1-0 in their most recent head-to-head meetings. Additionally, with a 1-0 record, West Virginia has the advantage ATS. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, neither team was able to hold the advantage in all three of these categories over their past five meetings against one another.
Predictions: SU Winner – WVU, ATS Winner – WVU, O/U – Over
Notes
Ranked 14th, the Maryland Terrapins have one of the top defenses in the country, giving up just 148.7 points per 100 possessions. The West Virginia Mountaineers rank 97th in offense, scoring 106.1 points in the same number of possessions.
Maryland has an average field goal percentage of 43.7%. West Virginia is a winning 15-6 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Maryland Terrapins rank lower for their field goal percentage (161st) than they do for their effective field goal percentage (101st), but the West Virginia Mountaineers have a better FG% ranking (281st) than eFG% ranking (288th).
West Virginia ranks 53rd in assists, recording 14.5 per game. Maryland performs worse at 293rd with 10.9 assists per game.
West Virginia, the 57th-ranked team in rebounding, registers an average of 36.8 rebounds per game. Maryland does worse, ranked 140th with 35.0.
Ranked first in the country, West Virginia makes 10.9 steals per game. In games where it allows 10 or more steals, Maryland is undefeated at 4-0.
