The Memphis Grizzlies (18-36) look to snap their five-game losing streak when they meet the Oklahoma City Thunder (31-25) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 11, 2018, and will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Prediction
In the Grizzlies’ last contest, they were topped by the Utah Jazz, 92-88. Utah was successful at getting and making free throws. The Jazz made 28 of their 33 free throws (84.8 percent), while the Grizzlies were 12-16 (75.0 percent). Memphis’ Marc Gasol played well, recording 20 points, six rebounds and five assists.
The Thunder were blown out by the Los Angeles Lakers in their last outing, 106-81. Los Angeles’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Oklahoma City. The Lakers had a rate of 7.3 (better than their season average of 13.6), while the Thunder posted a mark of 11.7. Paul George had a solid game for Oklahoma City, leading both teams in scoring with 29 points on 11-for-25 shooting.
The offensive glass should be a major advantage for Oklahoma City in this contest. The Thunder rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (28.2 percent), while Memphis ranks 24th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.3 percent). Ball protection could be troublesome for the Grizzlies. They rank 23rd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 14.7 percent), while the Thunder force the most turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.6 percent).
Memphis comes into the game with records of 18-36 straight up (SU) and 24-28-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total high when the Grizzlies are involved, as 57.4 percent of their games have gone under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 31-25 SU and 22-33-1 ATS. Coinciding with Memphis, games including the Thunder also have typically finished under the O/U total (57.1 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Dillon Brooks (12.2 points) has been fantastic for the Grizzlies while George (30.0 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.4 steals) has made great contributions to the Thunder.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Grizzlies lost 102-101 but covered as 5-point underdogs. Tyreke Evans led both teams with 29 points and also put up 13 rebounds and five assists. The game finished with a total of 203 points, which was 6 points above the projected point total of 197 points. The Thunder had a better free throw rate (0.196 vs. 0.114) and had a better turnover percentage (8.6 vs. 12.0).
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Memphis is 11-13-1 ATS on the road with 12 overs, 12 unders and 1 push.
At home, Oklahoma City is 11-16-1 ATS with 16 unders and 12 overs.
In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Oklahoma City is 17-5 and Memphis is 11-10.
The Grizzlies are 13-13 when they reach the century mark, while the Thunder are 27-12.
Oklahoma City ranks first in second chance points per game (15.0) while Memphis ranks 23rd (11.0).
The Thunder rank fifth in rebounds per game (45.0) while the Grizzlies rank 27th (40.4).
Oklahoma City ranks fourth in fast break points per game (14.6) while Memphis ranks 25th in fast break points allowed per game (13.8).
The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.3) while the Grizzlies rank 18th (7.4).
Oklahoma City averages 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. Memphis ranks 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
The Thunder average 18.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks first in the league. The Grizzlies rank 16th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.2).
Memphis ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (40.9) while Oklahoma City ranks ninth (42.5).
The Grizzlies rank 23rd in three pointers attempted per game (26.6) while the Thunder rank 24th in three pointers allowed per game (30.5).
Oklahoma City is 26th in the league with 21.0 assists per game while Memphis is 27th with 20.9 assists per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Memphis is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Grizzlies’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 10.2, up from 3.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 106.8 points per game (0.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.0 points per game (9.1 above their season average).
