The (11) UCF Knights will host the (14) Memphis Tigers in the AAC Title Game Saturday afternoon from Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Florida. The game is scheduled to start on Saturday, December 2nd at 12:00 p.m. EST. The Knights come into this game as a -7 point favorite and the contest’s total sits at a lofty 82 points. The AAC Title game can be seen on the ABC Network for your viewing entertainment.
The Memphis Tigers come into this championship game on fire. The Tigers have recorded victories in seven-straight and their only loss was to the UCF Knights back in late September. Memphis sits 7-1 in AAC play and is 10-1 overall. Last weekend, Memphis trounced East Carolina 70-13 at home.
The UCF Knights have yet to lose in 2017. They have been the darlings of the FBS in 2017 and continue to find ways to get the job done by utilizing many skilled players on their sixth-ranked offense. In last week’s match-up, the Knights scored on a kickoff return to upend conference rivals South Florida 49-42. As a result, UCF went 8-0 in conference play and are now 11-0 on the season.
The last time these two schools squared-off, the Knights got the better of the Tigers to the tune of 40-13. In that game, UCF compiled just over 600 yards of offense and their defense held the Tigers to only 396 total yards. Turnovers were a big reason why. Memphis tossed three interceptions and also fumbled the rock away once.
(14) Memphis Tigers (10-1)
The Memphis tigers use one of the country’s most balanced offenses to keep opposing defenses guessing. The Tigers sit ninth in the FBS in passing offense and 32nd in rushing yardage. Quarterback Riley Ferguson has been the spark plug that has led the Tiger’s passing onslaught in 2017. The senior thrower has completed 248 of his 399 passes for 3,500 yards. He also has thrown for 32 touchdowns and only has eight interceptions on his resume’. He will be looking for a bounce-back performance against UCF, who picked him off three times in their only defeat of the season.
Running backs Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor Jr. make up one of the nation’s best one-two punch out of the backfield. Together, the two workhorses have combined for 1,752 yards and 20 touchdowns. Henderson leads the team with 1,052 yards and Taylor Jr. leads the club with 12 trips to glory. These two performers will need to be at their best this weekend if they hope to keep the Knights opportunistic defense honest.
All year when I’ve written on the Memphis Tigers, one name has continually surfaced. That name would be Anthony Miller. The exceptional wide receiver has been Riley Ferguson’s favorite target from the word go. Through 11 games this year, Miller has caught a team-high 78 passes for 1,212 yards and 14 scores. It has been number three to number four throughout the year and I don’t expect that to change much in this title game.
On defense, the Tigers have shown some improvement as the season has progressed. Even so, they still struggle to stop the run and the pass. The front seven is ranked 98th in the nation, allowing teams to rack up 193 yards on the ground. The secondary is worse, surrendering 259.9 yards a contest (104th). Overall, the unit is giving way to almost 31 points a game.
(11) UCF Knights (11-0)
The UCF Knights will try to keep their unbeaten record intact against a club they easily defeated in late September. The Knights are led by starting quarterback McKenzie Milton. Milton had a spectacular campaign, throwing for 3,301 yards with an impressive 30 touchdowns. More importantly, the sophomore gunslinger has only been picked off six times this year. Against the Tigers, Milton tossed three scores in the win. He also has registered eight touchdown passes and only one interception in his last two outings.
Running back Adrian Killins Jr. is the Knights go-to guy out of the backfield. This year, the senior has compiled just over 700 yards on 100 carries and has found the end zone nine times. Quarterback McKenzie Milton is also a threat with his feet. The dual-threat player scrambled for another 429 yards and six touchdowns.
UCF likes to spread the ball around to four different wide receivers when they look to get their downfield passing game going. Combined, the foursome has snatched up 131 passes for well over 2,200 yards and 23 scores. Tre’Quan Smith leads the unit with 11 touchdown catches and 921 yards. Running back Otis Anderson is also a threat out of the backfield. The tailback has recorded 25 catches for 316 yards and two more end zone appearances.
UCF’s defense hasn’t been all that great but they still are better than the Memphis Tigers squad. In all, the defense has allowed teams to score only 23 points a game against them (33rd). The back half is their weakest link, giving up 243 yards a contest (96th). The front seven is a little better, conceding to 155 yards which are good for 53rd in the nation. The 42 points that South Florida put up on them last week was the highest amount they have given up in 2017.
Prediction
There is little doubt that the AAC has its two best teams squaring off in the championship game. Line setters have placed the UCF Knights as a seven-point favorite partly because of what they did to the Tigers in September. That game was seven weeks ago and the Tigers have been licking their chops to get another shot at the Knights since. Well here is their chance.
Vegas also has this game’s total at a gaudy 82 points. When you look at how the season has evolved for these two teams I can see why. Both offenses are efficient and can lay 40 points on almost anybody in the FBS. Still, 82 points seems a little high to me. Last time these two schools played they only combined for 53 and that was with six total turnovers. Besides, the Tigers defense has been playing better of late. Because of these reasons and the jitters I expect the clubs to have to open the game, I’m suggesting to take the under 82. Yes, I do believe this will be a high-scoring game but the 82 is just too much.
As for the spread, I love the underdog in this game. Riley Ferguson is as seasoned a quarterback as it gets and I don’t expect him to throw three picks in this one. Buy the seven points to 7.5 and ride the Tigers to cover this championship battle by at least a touchdown. @EriktheHun
Head on over to BetDSI Sportsbook to get a play in on this terrific match-up on the 2nd of December.
Trends
The Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Over is 4-1 in the Tigers last 5 games overall.
The Knights are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Over is 4-0 in the Knights last 4 home games.
Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
