The Men’s NCAA Championship game is set for April 3, as Gonzaga and the Tar Heels look to make history.
The Final Dance on Monday night will be a terrific contest between two very different programs but both great teams, with the Gonzaga Bulldogs taking on the North Carolina Tar Heels for the NCAA national championship title. Gonzaga has lost just once all season long and is playing their first Final Four in the school history. On the other side, UNC has worked hard the whole season for a revenge opportunity after a heartbreaking loss to Villanova in the last year’s NCAA Championship game. They’ve been here before, but will their experience help them? Can Gonzaga beat the best team they’ve faced all season?
Place: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Date/Time: Monday April 3rd, 2017. 9:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: CBS
#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #1 North Carolina Tar Heels
LINE: UNC -1.5 (-104); moneyline -118
Total: 153.5 points (-102 over, -110 under)
Gonzaga holds off South Carolina to advance to the national championship game
The Gonzaga Bulldogs (37-1) defeated South Carolina 77-73 to gain a berth in the final. They did it with a team effort and by executing on all game’s vital elements. Zags prized big men did an awesome job. Zach Collins stepped in for shaken Karnowski after he got knocked out of the game with a blow to the face, finishing with 14 points, 13 rebounds and 6 blocked shots. Karnowski was able to return from the eye injury to add 13 points. The starting guard duo, Mathews and Williams-Goss, did their part with 6 triples and timely shots. Williams-Goss played a true leader game with efficient shooting for his 23 points, without trying to do too much on his own and dishing out the ball to his teammates to allow for the good offensive flow that translated to Bulldogs 48.3 percent shooting for the game. Gonzaga did a good job on the boards and played a very solid defense. Coach Few managed to adjust the game plan for what no other defense has been able to do this postseason – stop Sindarius Thornwell. Tournament’s leading scorer was limited in scoring and in his role and finished with just 15 points. Other players stepped up for the Gamecocks but they still managed to shoot only 38 percent as a team.
Overall, the Bulldogs looked like a much better team, slowly building up the lead that has reached 14 points margin midway in the second half, and had only one bad stretch in the game when they let the desperate South Carolina back into the game. The Gamecocks even took a brief lead with Gonzaga rim protectors in foul trouble, but the better team prevailed.
Gonzaga won for the eighth consecutive time and will try to finish off the historic season with the biggest victory ever. It’s certainly a massive success to be the part of the last game of the season, but the Bulldogs have enough swagger to embrace the moment and not be swallowed by it. Karnowski and Nigel Williams-Goss have suffered minor injuries that won’t keep them off the game. Other than that, the Bulldogs are in a good position with their two way basketball. They average 83.1 points per game, just slightly less than the praised UNC offense, but allow only 61.2 points per game. They did allow more than 70 points in two games in the Tournament and the only time they’ve lost this season, they’ve allowed 79 to BYU, so their defense is mostly likely to be a decisive factor.
Tar Heels edge Oregon by good interior effort
The North Carolina Tar Heels (32-7) advanced to the second straight championship game with a 77-76 victory over Oregon. It was a dramatic game but also an ugly affair as the players of both teams were obviously very nervous. North Carolina couldn’t get into any kind of an offensive flow they are known for, unable to find any player that would carry the offensive load. Most of their points came on exploiting the middle with offensive rebounding and deep positions of their frontcourt, as the Ducks couldn’t hide the absence of Boucher against the formidable opponent.
It’s not hard to pin-point a player who carried the load for the Tar Heels. Kennedy Meeks did it all with 25 points on 11-on-13 shooting, 14 rebounds, 8 of which on the offensive end and 3 steals. The senior center also made the vital offensive rebound on the missed free throws to preserve the tiny lead and the win. Justin Jackson was also solid with 4 three pointers and 22 points, but the rest of the team was not on the desired level. Hicks shot 1-of-12 and had 2 turnovers in 20 minutes. Joel Berry II, troubled by his ankle injuries, shot 2-of-14 and missed 4 free throws. The reserves combined for just 9 points. Discounting Meeks’ strong outing, the rest of the Tar Heels shot just 14-of-55. They did move the ball well, but couldn’t make the shots fall. UNC did a fair job defensively, challenging Ducks shots and limiting them to 37.9 shooting. The refs were whistle happy and both teams enjoyed a lot of free throws, but the Tar Heels were occasionally out of position on Ducks’ guards penetration after a successful inside-outside play as they tried to be opportunistic on playing the passing lanes.
After a comfortable win over the Texas Southern, UNC played four close games, winning by a combined 3 points in the last two over Kentucky and Oregon. They did play more formidable opponents than Gonzaga both this postseason and throughout the year, so the +13.3 point differential is equally impressive as Zags’ number. They count of the offense to get the things done and play only a solid D. The Tar Heels average 84.3 points per contest and limit the opposition to 71.0 points. Joel Berry II is playing on some wobbly ankles, but other than that, the Tar Heels will be ready, having experienced the big game last year.
#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #1 North Carolina Tar Heels Game Trends & Prediction
The Gonzaga Bulldogs lost only once the entire season and were making money for the backers, until the postseason. They covered in only one of their five tourney wins. However, they were in a position to cover all of them as they played well enough. Their ATS record this season is 23-10-2. The number of times the Zags have been underdogs this season: 0. They are much less predictable on the over/under market, going 17-18 for the season and 2-3 for in the tourney.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are 19-16-3 ATS overall and have covered only two postseason games, one of which was the first round blowout. Tar Heels also went 15-21-1 against the over/under, alternating decisions in the last five games.
North Carolina opened as a short favorite over Gonzaga, and some early movement was with the underdog. This is not too surprising despite the UNC popularity as the Bulldogs have it all and were not an underdog the entire season, although to inferior competition. I think the books overplayed the big name bias a bit, trying to protect themselves from the flurry of public bets on North Carolina. The teams are fairly well matched, as both sides can play inside and outside and counter with different game styles. They are also well coached and can win close games. Tar Heels have the experience from the last season, but Zags are also a veteran team and I like their game more. They should stay with the North Carolina rebounding and keep them away from the rim. The Tar Heels guards are not at their best at the moment and I’m liking the underdog’s chances as well. Given the odds, it’s a clear choice for me. Over is a more popular option with the public so far, but the line is not moving much. My projected number is 151.5 points, so I’ll be tracking the market closer to the game for an opportunity to place an under wager. It’s still pretty distant, but given the game popularity I’m holding hope that it will change enough. Since it is the Final Dance, I will chip in the Additional Pick as well, taking the Zags at the half-time (+0.5 -105)
My Pick: Gonzaga +1.5 and moneyline
Total: (Under 155.5 points -110)
Additional Pick: First Half Gonzaga +0.5 (-105)
