The Miami Dolphins travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots this week. The game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday and can be seen on CBS.
The Week 1 matchup between the Patriots and the Dolphins ended in a 33-20 loss for New England. Jerod Mayo led the Patriots defensive effort in that game, registering 12 tackles and one sack. Knowshon Moreno had a great performance on the ground for Miami, rushing for 134 yards and one TD on 24 carries.
New England is a heavy seven-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 47 points. Heading into Week 15 of league action, the Patriots are 10-3 Straight Up (SU) and 8-5 Against The Spread (ATS). In their five most recent matchups, the Patriots went 4-1 both SU and ATS. Nobody can stop New England’s offense recently, which is averaging 411.0 total yards over the last five games. As for the New England defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. The Dolphins will be matching up against a stout New England run defense, which only allowed 67.2 rushing yards over its last five matchups. New England likes to run an up-tempo, fast-paced offense. With an average of 68.2 plays per game, they rank fifth in the NFL.
Across the field, the Dolphins have a record of 7-6 both ATS and SU. In the previous five games, Miami has a record of 2-3 both SU and ATS. The Dolphins are top-five in the league at limiting their opponents’ passing attack, allowing a league-low average of just 9.5 yards per pass. The Patriots will have to stay focused in the third quarter against Miami. The Dolphins usually start off the second half with dominance, averaging a league-leading 9.5 points during the third quarter. Prepare to see a lot of yellow flags flying around when the Patriots are playing. They are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL with 8.1 calls per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIA, ATS Winner – MIA, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami’s last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games on the road.
New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games.
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing New England.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New England’s last 11 games at home.
Miami is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing New England.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games when playing Miami.
Miami is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England.
New England is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Miami.
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England.
New England is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami.
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami.
Miami is 4-2 SU when leading at the half this season. New England is 9-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Miami is 6-2 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. New England is 9-0 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
This season, Miami is 4-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and only 2-3 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
This season, New England is only 2-1 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Dating back to last season, New England is 6-3 SU against AFC East opponents, while Miami is an even 5-5 SU against division foes.
The New England passing attack is ranked only seventh in the league, while the Miami pass defense is ranked third. The Dolphins’ passing game is ranked just 23rd, compared to the 17th-ranked pass defense of the Patriots.
The New England offensive ground attack is ranked 20th in the league, compared to the 22nd-ranked rush defense of Miami.
Miami has only given up 20.3 points per game on the road, which is ranked sixth in the league. New England, however, has scored 35.7 points per game at home (ranked second overall).
