Hoping to extend their undefeated record, the New England Patriots (6-0) take on the Miami Dolphins (3-3). The NFL’s second-leading passer, Tom Brady (2,054 yards, 16 TDs), will be a player to watch in this game. It will air Thursday, Oct 29 at 8:25 p.m. ET on CBS and NFLN.
This week marks the first meeting of the season for New England and Miami. These two AFC East rivals split their matchups last season. Chandler Jones led the Patriots defensive effort in the last meeting, recording four tackles and 1.5 sacks. Kelvin Sheppard led the defensive effort for Miami, recording seven tackles.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at 51 points and the Dolphins are a big seven-point underdog.
Sitting at 6-0 Straight Up (SU) and 3-1-2 Against The Spread (ATS), the Patriots will look to improve heading into Week 8. New England’s offense is averaging 420.8 total yards over the last five games. Turning to the Patriots defense, there are several areas to keep an eye on. Miami will have to keep New England from hitting their quarterback. The Patriots average the fourth-most sacks in the league with 3.5 per game. In the first quarter, New England strikes early, putting up 6.2 points in the first 15 minutes. On average, the Dolphins are given 8.5 flags each game, one of the worst rates in the league. Similar errors could benefit the Patriots in this week’s game.
Across the field, the Dolphins head into Week 8 with records of 3-3 for both ATS and SU. Over their last five games, the Dolphins have a SU and ATS record of 2-3. There’s a good chance that Miami will rely on its passing attack against a defense that allows 283 passing yards per home game, ranking 26th in the league. Moving on to the Miami defense, there are certain areas where it measures up well against the Patriots. New England’s unreliable run game at home could cost them a shot at victory over the Dolphins. The Patriots average 73.7 rushing yards per home game, 32nd in the league.
Predictions: SU Winner – NE, ATS Winner – NE, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games.
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 13 of New England’s last 18 games at home.
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
New England is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
New England is 14-5-2 ATS in its last 21 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games when playing Miami.
New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami.
Miami is 2-0 SU when leading at the half this season. New England is 5-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Interestingly, Miami is winless (0-2 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (2-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
Miami has drawn an average of 8.2 penalties per game on opponents this season, while New England has induced 8.5 per game on opponents. Miami is only 2-2 SU when receiving at least eight penalties in a game. New England is actually a perfect 3-0 SU when getting penalized at least eight times.
The New England passing attack is ranked second in the league, while the Miami pass defense is only ranked 14th. The Dolphins’ passing game is ranked 13th, compared to the 18th-ranked pass defense of the Patriots.
Miami has only allowed 14.3 points per game on the road, which ranks it second in the league. New England, however, has scored 36.3 points per contest at home (ranked first overall).
