The Miami Dolphins (+7) are heading north to face their AFC East nemesis New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. This early afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can watch the action on CBS.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots Betting Preview
In this Sunday AFC game, New England is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. The Dolphins are also receiving +230 moneyline odds while the Patriots are -280. Multiple good in-game betting opportunities could be unveiled during this showdown, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 48 points.
This game’s line opened at -8. The total hasn’t moved since it opened at 48.
The surprising Dolphins are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 3.3 units so far in 2018. The team has recorded an Over-Under mark of 2-1. The Patriots have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 3.0 units. They’re 1-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-2.
The Dolphins have gone 3-0 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AFC East opponents. The Patriots are 1-2 SU overall and 0-0 SU against divisional foes.
The Dolphins are hoping to remain unbeaten following a 28-20 victory over Oakland in Week 3. Ryan Tannehill completed 17-of-23 passes for 289 yards and three touchdowns. Frank Gore (just 12 rushing yards on six attempts) led the ground attack while Kenny Stills (three receptions, 61 yards, one TD) and Danny Amendola (three catches, 42 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
New England most-recently fell 26-10 to Detroit a week ago. Tom Brady completed 14-of-26 passes for 133 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Sony Michel (50 yards on 14 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game as Rob Gronkowski (four receptions, 51 yards) and Chris Hogan (three catches, 31 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Miami’s run the ball on 49.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has a rush percentage of 42.5 percent. The Dolphins have run for 99 yards per game (including 135 per game versus East opponents) and have just a single score on the ground this year. The Pats are totaling 98 rush yards per game (0 in conference) and have yet to record a rushing TD.
The Dolphins offensive scheme has averaged 246 yards in the air overall (168 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing score so far. The Pats have put up 215 pass yards per contest (0.0 in the AFC) and have six total pass TD.
On the defensive side of the ball, Miami has allowed 89 rush yards and 300 pass yards per game. The New England defense has allowed 271.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 143.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Dolphins are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.76 to opposing QBs, while the Pats have given up a 6.67 ANY/A.
Offensively, Tannehill has amassed 519 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 73 percent of his 51 attempts with five passing scores and two interceptions. He has a sparkling 9.66 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.84 over the last two games.
For the home team, Tom Brady has completed 40-of-65 passes for 410 yards, four TDs and two INTs. Brady’s ANY/A stands at 5.46 for the season and 5.46 over his last two games.
Free NFL Tip: Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
SU Winner – Dolphins, ATS Winner – Dolphins, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
Miami was favored by 3 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 46.5. The over cashed and Miami covered in the 28-20 victory over Oakland.
Miami has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its past two contests.
New England has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last two.
The New England offense has lost three fumbles this season while Miami has lost two.
In its last three matches, Miami is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
New England was getting 7 points in its last match and the Over/Under was 55.5. The under cashed and New England did not cover in the 26-10 loss to Detroit.
Over its last three matchups, New England is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Dolphins offense has produced three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Patriots have accounted for zero such plays.
The Miami defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New England has given up one such play.
The Miami offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New England has created zero such runs.
The Dolphins defense has allowed one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while the Patriots have given up two such runs.
The Miami D has six sacks on the year while New England has four.
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