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In their final home game of the season, the No. 5-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (21-5) host the No. 11-ranked Miami (FL) Hurricanes (21-4) at Dean E. Smith Center. Action starts at 1:00 pm ET on Saturday, Feb. 20 and can be seen on CBS.
The Tar Heels lost a close one to Duke 74-73 on Wednesday. Despite the loss, Brice Johnson earned his 15th double-double this season with 29 points and 19 rebounds. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, are coming off a 65-49 win over Virginia Tech on Wednesday. Davon Reed stood out for Miami (FL), accumulating 12 points, five rebounds, and two blocks.
This matchup figures to be a high-scoring affair as North Carolina ranks 14th in the nation in offensive efficiency (116.6), while Miami (FL) is 21st (115.8).
Despite a 21-5 Straight Up (SU) record, the Tar Heels have not fared well Against The Spread (ATS) with a 9-15-2 record. North Carolina has been struggling of late. In the last 10 games, North Carolina has only averaged 70.9 points per game compared to the 83.4 they’ve averaged on the season. The Tar Heels are a phenomenal shooting team from the line with a .736 free throw percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. North Carolina has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where it racks up an average of 40.7 rebounds per game. The Tar Heels, sporting the third-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.69), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team.
Across the court, the Hurricanes have 21-4 SU and 15-8-1 ATS records. Miami (FL) managed to go 7-3 SU over the last 10 games, while only going 3-7 ATS during the same amount of time. The Hurricanes rank 32nd in the country in road scoring, averaging 76.8 points per game. Miami (FL) is one of the top foul-shooting teams in the nation, making .759 of their shots from the line. Shifting to the other side of the court, the Hurricanes allow very few three-pointers on defense with 5.0 given up per game. Miami (FL) has not committed many turnovers, averaging only 10.7 per game.
These conference rivals meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. North Carolina won the last game in the matchup, bumping its SU record to 6-4 over Miami (FL) in their most recent meetings. The teams have an even record ATS, 5-5. Miami (FL) held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers twice, while North Carolina was never able to do so in their most recent five games.
Predictions: SU Winner – UNC, ATS Winner – UNC
Notes
“North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games “.
“North Carolina is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games “.
“The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina’s last 5 games “.
“North Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home”.
“North Carolina is 20-1 SU in its last 21 games at home”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina’s last 5 games at home”.
“North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami”.
“North Carolina is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Miami”.
“North Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina’s last 8 games when playing Miami”.
“North Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami”.
“North Carolina is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Miami”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina’s last 5 games when playing at home against Miami”.
North Carolina is one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 83.4 points per game (ranked ninth). Miami (FL) allows 65.4 points per game (ranked 33rd).
Miami (FL) has allowed an average of 67.9 points per away game this season. North Carolina averages 85.9 points per home game, ranking 14th in scoring.
The North Carolina Tar Heels rank 14th for their offensive rating of 116.6. The Miami (FL) Hurricanes have a defensive rating of 97.6 (ranked 53rd).
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 71.6 possessions and 1.166 points per possession in games this season. The Miami (FL) Hurricanes average fewer possessions with 66.5, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.158.
The Miami (FL) Hurricanes average an effective field goal percentage of 53.7% this season. The North Carolina Tar Heels have a winning 2-1 record in games where opponents have an eFG% of 53.7% or greater.
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 16.0 three point attempts per game, and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes attempt 19.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, North Carolina is a perfect 7-0, while Miami (FL) also has a winning record (12-2).
The third-ranked team in the category, North Carolina has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.69 this season. Miami (FL) ranks 77th with an A/TO of 1.23.
Ranked 22nd in the nation, North Carolina averages 40.7 rebounds per game. Miami (FL) ranks lower at 180th with 36.2 RPG.
Miami (FL) ranks 249th in offensive rebounds, while North Carolina ranks at 66th in defensive rebounds.
On average, North Carolina forces a turnover rate of 19.2%. When Miami (FL) turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a superb 5-1 record.
