It will be a battle between Southeast Division opponents when the Atlanta Hawks (22-56) welcome the Miami Heat (42-36) to Philips Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 4, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 205 points with Miami opening as an 8-point favorite.
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks ATS Prediction
The Heat lead the season series against the Hawks two games to one, escaping with a narrow three-point victory in their last matchup. Miami covered as a 1.5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 199 points, which was just 3 points below the projected point total of 202 points. Miami had a better turnover percentage (12.6 vs. 13.7). Atlanta, on the other hand, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (25.5 vs. 22.9). Dragic recorded a double-double with 22 points and 10 rebounds.
The ineffective offense of Atlanta (26th in the league with an offensive efficiency of 103.1) will battle against the elite defense of Miami (fifth in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 104.5). The Heat figure to have the edge on that side of the ball.
Miami holds records of 42-36 straight up (SU) and 39-34-4 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Heat have a slight tendency to go under the total (50.6 percent).
Meanwhile, Atlanta owns records of 22-56 SU and 36-39-2 ATS. Much like Miami, Hawks games have gone under the total 51.9 percent of the time.
John Collins has averaged 8.6 rebounds, 8.0 points and 1.4 blocks over the last five games for Atlanta.
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Hawks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Miami is 23-14-2 ATS with 20 unders, 18 overs and 1 push.
Atlanta is 19-20 ATS at home with 19 overs, 18 unders and 2 pushes.
Atlanta is 11-4 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 26-6.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Hawks are 18-30 and the Heat are 30-18.
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.8) while Atlanta ranks last (26.1).
The Heat rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (26.3) while the Hawks rank 26th (30.7).
Miami averages 5.3 blocks per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Atlanta ranks 26th in blocks allowed per game (5.4).
The Heat rank 12th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while the Hawks rank 27th (8.7).
Miami ranks 12th in points in the paint per game (44.6) while Atlanta ranks 26th (41.2).
The Heat rank 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.7) while the Hawks rank 25th (17.9).
Atlanta ranks 17th in second chance points per game (12.0) while Miami ranks 26th (10.9).
The Hawks rank 20th in fast break points per game (10.4) while the Heat rank 27th (9.1).
Miami ranks 19th in rebounds per game (43.2) while Atlanta ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (44.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 1-3-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.2, up from 0.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 99.2 points per game (4.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.8 points per game (2.0 below their season average).
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