The Cleveland Cavaliers (29-20) challenge the Miami Heat (29-21) at Quicken Loans Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports – Ohio at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 31, 2018.
Cleveland opened as a 3-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 213 points.
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Prediction
The Heat come in on a high note after topping the Dallas Mavericks in their last contest, 95-88. The Heat held the Mavericks to an effective field goal percentage of 0.430 (below their season average of 0.517). The Mavericks had a free throw rate of 0.163 (below the 0.217 mark opponents have averaged against Miami this season). Miami was led by Hassan Whiteside, who was the top scorer from either team with 25 points on 10-for-15 shooting.
The last time the Cavaliers played, they fell to the Detroit Pistons, 125-114. Detroit’s 8.7 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Cleveland, who had a rate of 13.3. The Pistons’ mark was better than their season average of 12.2. With 21 points on 9-for-20 shooting, LeBron James was Cleveland’s high scorer.
It could be a tough game for Cleveland on the offensive glass. The Cavaliers rank 26th in offensive rebounding percentage (19.9 percent), while Miami ranks fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.6 percent). Furthermore, the Heat, who rank 25th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.172), will battle against the Cavaliers, who rank first in opponents’ FTA rate (0.160).
Miami holds records of 29-21 straight up (SU) and 24-24-2 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Heat have typically gone under the total (58.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Cleveland is 29-20 SU and 14-33-1 ATS. In opposition of Miami, a little over half of Cavaliers games have finished over the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Josh Richardson (13.2 points, 4.6 assists and 1.8 steals) has been great for the Heat while Isaiah Thomas (17.0 points and 4.4 assists) has made great contributions to the Cavaliers.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Kevin Love scored a game-high 38 points in the first game, in which the Cavaliers beat the Heat 108-97, covering as 3.5-point favorites. He also put up nine rebounds. The game finished with a total of 205 points, which was just 4.5 points below the projected point total of 209.5 points. The Cavaliers knocked down 17 of their 23 free throws (73.9 percent) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.562 vs. 0.500).
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Cavaliers, ATS Winner – Cavaliers, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 17-10 ATS on the road with 16 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
Cleveland is 5-18-1 ATS at home with 13 overs, 10 unders and 1 push.
Miami is 17-5 when they allow under 100 points, while Cleveland is 10-2.
In games where they score above 100 points, the Cavaliers are 29-12 and the Heat are 20-7.
Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (19.9) while Cleveland ranks last (26.1).
The Heat rank third in three pointers allowed per game (25.5) while the Cavaliers rank last (31.8).
Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.3) while Cleveland ranks 27th (3.8).
The Heat rank 12th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.0) while the Cavaliers rank 26th (47.2).
Cleveland ranks 14th in fast break points per game (11.2) while Miami ranks 26th (7.5).
The Cavaliers rank 21st in second chance points per game (11.5) while the Heat rank 27th (10.2).
Miami averages 42.2 rebounds per game, which ranks 20th in the league. Cleveland ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (44.0).
The Cavaliers rank 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.9) while the Heat rank 15th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.2).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Cleveland is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push over their last five games.
The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.6 points.
During their last five games, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 115.2 points per game (5.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 119.8 points per game (10.0 above their season average).
