The Detroit Pistons (24-26) meet the Miami Heat (29-23) at Little Caesars Arena. The game can be seen on Fox Sports – Detroit at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 3, 2018.
Detroit opened as a 2-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 197 points.
Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons Free Prediction
In the Heat’s last game, they were beaten by the Philadelphia 76ers, 103-97. Philadelphia’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Miami. The 76ers had a rate of 0.541 (above their season average of 0.526), while the Heat posted a mark of 0.460 (below their season average of 0.521). Miami’s Bam Adebayo played well, putting up 15 points, 13 rebounds and six assists.
The Pistons edged the Memphis Grizzlies in their last contest, 104-102. The Pistons knocked down 27 of their 37 free throws (73.0 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 7.1 (better than their season average of 12.1). Blake Griffin was the game’s leading scorer with 24 points on 6-for-12 shooting.
Detroit might struggle to find the bottom of the net as they clash against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Miami ranks fifth in defensive efficiency, while the Pistons rank 21st in offensive efficiency.
Miami comes into the contest with records of 29-23 straight up (SU) and 25-24-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 51 games with betting action, 30 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Detroit is 24-26 SU and 25-23-2 ATS. A little over half of Pistons games have also finished under the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Kelly Olynyk (11.6 points) has been stellar for the Heat while Andre Drummond (17.4 points, 16.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.8 blocks and 1.6 steals) has made great contributions to the Pistons.
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Heat won the most recent matchup 111-104, covering as 5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 215 points, which was 16 points above the projected point total of 199 points. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (18.9 vs. 12.8). Detroit, meanwhile, did an excellent job of converting from the free throw line (13-16; 81.3 percent). Olynyk put up a double-double in the victory with 25 points and 13 rebounds.
Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 18-10 ATS on the road with 17 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
At home, Detroit is 11-13-1 ATS with 13 overs and 12 unders.
Detroit is 12-6 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 17-6.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Pistons are 21-12 and the Heat are 20-7.
Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (20.0) while Detroit ranks 26th (24.3).
The Heat rank fifth in blocks per game (5.3) while the Pistons rank 27th (3.7).
Detroit ranks 10th in second chance points per game (13.1) while Miami ranks 27th (10.4).
The Pistons rank ninth in points off turnovers per game (17.3) while the Heat rank 25th (14.9).
Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (25.5) while Detroit ranks 13th (28.8).
The Pistons rank 17th in fast break points per game (10.5) while the Heat rank 27th (7.6).
Detroit ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (6.9) while Miami ranks 12th (7.5).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 4-1 ATS with 5 unders.
Detroit is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.8 points.
During their last five games, the Pistons have scored an average of 107.2 points per game (4.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.2 points per game (8.1 above their season average).
