The Indiana Pacers (8-6) go head-to-head against the Miami Heat (6-8) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, November 16, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Seattle.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 212 points with Indiana opening as a 4.5-point favorite.
Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers Betting Prediction
The Heat come in on a high note after easily covering the 2-point spread against the Brooklyn Nets in their last game, 120-107. The total points for the game (227) finished over the O/U total of 214. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Miami’s largest advantages. They made 28 trips to the line, while Brooklyn went 24 times. Miami was lifted by Hassan Whiteside, who had 14 points and 10 rebounds.
In the Pacers’ previous matchup, they were beaten by the Houston Rockets, 115-103. They were unable to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (218) finished over the projected point total of 210. Houston’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Indiana. The Rockets had a rate of 21.1 (below their season average of 23.8), while the Pacers posted a mark of 14.3 (below their season average of 20.5). Indiana’s Victor Oladipo had a solid performance, leading the team in scoring with 22 points on 7-for-24 shooting.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Oladipo scored a game-high 22 points and the Pacers beat the Heat 110-102, covering as 2.5-point favorites. He also recorded 10 assists and five rebounds. The game finished with a total of 212 points, which was just 5 points above the projected point total of 207 points. The Pacers had a better turnover percentage (16.4 vs. 20.0) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.589 vs. 0.537).
Miami heads into the game with records of 6-8 straight up (SU) and 6-8 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 14 games, 11 have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Indiana owns records of 8-6 SU and 6-7-1 ATS. Unlike Miami, games featuring the Pacers have typically gone under the projected point total (57.1 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Whiteside (15.2 points, 14.6 rebounds and 3.8 blocks) has been great for the Heat while Oladipo (27.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 2.2 steals) has contributed greatly to the Pacers.
This has potential to be a sloppy game for the offense of Miami. Miami ranks 26th in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.3 percent), while the disruptive defense of Indiana forces the third-most turnovers in the NBA (15.9 percent).
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Free Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 3-3 ATS on the road with 5 overs and 1 under.
Indiana is 3-3 ATS at home with 5 unders and 1 over.
Miami is 2-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Indiana is 2-1.
When scoring over 100 points, the Pacers are 8-2 and the Heat are 5-8.
Indiana ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (10.9) while Miami ranks 28th (17.2).
The Pacers rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.1) while the Heat rank 27th (20.3).
Miami ranks sixth in rebounds per game (47.4) while Indiana ranks 27th (40.3).
The Heat average 6.9 blocks per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Pacers rank 21st in blocks allowed per game (5.9).
Miami ranks 12th in three pointers attempted per game (32.9) while Indiana ranks 29th (24.6).
The Pacers rank fifth in steals allowed per game (6.6) while the Heat rank 14th (7.6).
Indiana ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (39.4) while Miami ranks seventh (45.3).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (21.8) while the Pacers rank eighth (22.4).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five contests, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Indiana is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Heat have been outscored by an average of 0.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 0.2 points.
During their last five games, the Pacers have scored an average of 100.6 points per game (5.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.2 points per game (0.2 above their season average).
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