The Miami Heat (36-33) will try to end their nine-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers (31-37) at Staples Center. The game can be seen on NBATV at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 16, 2018.
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers Free Prediction
The Heat are trying to rebound after their 123-119 loss to the Sacramento Kings in their last outing. Sacramento’s 9.5 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Miami, who had a rate of 11.5. The Kings’ mark was better than their season average of 12.5. Miami’s James Johnson played well, finishing with 18 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.
In the Lakers’ last game, they lost to the Golden State Warriors, 117-106. Golden State’s rebounding was their biggest advantage. The Warriors had 11 offensive rebounds and 50 total rebounds, while the Lakers had six and 33, respectively. With 22 points on 8-for-10 shooting, Julius Randle led Los Angeles in scoring.
It will be a showdown of contrasting styles as the up-and-down Lakers will look to push the more grind-it-out Heat. The Lakers currently rank first in possessions per game while the Heat are 25th.
Miami heads into the contest with records of 36-33 straight up (SU) and 35-31-3 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 69 games, 35 have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles owns records of 31-37 SU and 37-31 ATS. Unlike Miami, Lakers games have a slight tendency to finish over the O/U total (54.4 percent).
Both teams have had a couple of players trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Heat it’s been Justise Winslow (12.2 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals) and Tyler Johnson (13.6 points), while Randle (22.6 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists) and Brook Lopez (21.8 points and 1.4 blocks) have been fantastic for the Lakers.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Thomas scored a game-high 29 points and the Lakers, who were 5-point underdogs, defeated the Heat 131-113. He also recorded six assists. The game finished with a total of 244 points, which was 25.5 points above the projected point total of 218.5 points. Los Angeles made good use of their 26 trips to the free throw line, converting on 21 of them (80.8 percent). Miami, meanwhile, was 12-16 (75.0 percent).
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Lakers, ATS Winner – Lakers, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Miami is 22-13-1 ATS with 18 unders, 17 overs and 1 push.
Los Angeles is 19-14 ATS at home with 17 overs and 16 unders.
Miami is 21-6 when they allow below 100 points, while Los Angeles is 11-3.
In games where they score above 100 points, the Lakers are 28-24 and the Heat are 26-16.
Los Angeles ranks second in fast break points per game (17.3) while Miami ranks 27th (8.4).
The Lakers rank second in second chance points per game (14.6) while the Heat rank 24th (10.9).
Miami averages 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 27th in blocks allowed per game (5.6).
The Heat rank 11th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.3) while the Lakers rank 29th (48.6).
Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (26.0) while Los Angeles ranks 20th (30.1).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (20.7) while the Lakers rank 18th (23.5).
Los Angeles ranks second in rebounds per game (46.3) while Miami ranks 16th (43.2).
The Heat rank 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.0) while the Lakers rank 26th (18.5).
Los Angeles ranks sixth in steals per game (8.1) while Miami ranks 11th in steals allowed per game (7.4).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 2-2-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Los Angeles is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 2.4 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.0 points.
During their last five games, the Lakers have scored an average of 113.8 points per game (5.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.0 points per game (2.8 above their season average).
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