The Oklahoma City Thunder (43-30) square off against the Miami Heat (39-33) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, March 23, 2018, and will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 215.5 points with Oklahoma City set as a 7-point favorite.
Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Prediction
The Heat come in on a high note after blowing out the New York Knicks in their last game, 119-98. The Heat had a phenomenally low turnover percentage of 7.3 (better than their season average of 12.8), while the Knicks had a free throw rate of 0.112 (below their season average of 0.177). With 22 points on 8-for-11 shooting, Kelly Olynyk was Miami’s leading scorer.
The last time the Thunder played, they lost a close one to the Boston Celtics, 100-99. Boston’s 23.4 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Oklahoma City, who had a rate of 16.3. The Celtics’ mark was above their season average of 21.3, while the Thunder’s was below their season average of 27.9. With 24 points and 13 rebounds, Oklahoma City’s Paul George had a solid performance.
Miami appears to have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Heat rank eighth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.510), while Oklahoma City is 19th in effective field goal percentage (0.516).
Miami heads into the game with records of 39-33 straight up (SU) and 38-31-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Heat games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City owns records of 43-30 SU and 30-42-1 ATS. Much like Miami, Thunder games have finished under the total 53.4 percent of the time.
Olynyk has averaged 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.2 steals over the last five games for Miami.
After the Thunder won both contests against the Heat last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last matchup, Oklahoma City won 106-94. The Thunder had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (37.8 vs. 22.0) and had a better free throw rate (0.207 vs. 0.183).
Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Odds Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 23-13-1 ATS on the road with 19 unders, 17 overs and 1 push.
At home, Oklahoma City is 15-20-1 ATS with 20 unders and 16 overs.
Oklahoma City is 20-5 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Miami is 23-6.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Heat are 28-16 and the Thunder are 39-15.
Oklahoma City ranks first in second chance points per game (15.1) while Miami ranks 25th (10.9).
The Thunder rank fifth in fast break points per game (14.8) while the Heat rank 28th (8.6).
Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (26.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 25th (30.6).
The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.0) while the Heat rank 18th (7.5).
Oklahoma City ranks first in points off turnovers per game (18.9) while Miami ranks 16th (16.3).
The Thunder rank fifth in rebounds per game (44.8) while the Heat rank 19th (43.1).
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.7) while Oklahoma City ranks 15th (23.3).
The Heat rank sixth in blocks per game (5.2) while the Thunder rank 11th in blocks allowed per game (4.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push.
Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.0, up from 0.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 115.4 points per game (8.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.2 points per game (5.2 above their season average).
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