The Philadelphia 76ers challenge the Miami Heat at Wells Fargo Center to open the First Round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 14, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 212 points with Philadelphia opening as a 7-point favorite.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers ATS Prediction
Both teams have won two games in the season series. The Heat won the most recent matchup 108-99, covering as 1-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 207 points, which was just 3.5 points below the projected point total of 210.5 points. Miami had a better turnover percentage (12.6 vs. 15.9). Philadelphia, on the other hand, did a great job of making free throws (16-21; 76.2 percent). Hassan Whiteside scored a game-high 26 points.
This game should be a showdown of conflicting paces. Philadelphia likes to play up-tempo (fourth in possessions per game), while Miami is more half-court-oriented (21st in possessions per game). Also, the Heat’s 21st-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 105.2) will face off against the 76ers’ third-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 102.6).
Miami holds records of 44-38 straight up (SU) and 41-37-4 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Heat’s games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia owns records of 52-30 SU and 48-34 ATS. Contrary to Miami, 76ers games have gone over the total 50.0 percent of the time.
Marco Belinelli has averaged 18.8 points over the last five games for Philadelphia.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – 76ers, ATS Winner – 76ers, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Miami is 24-15-2 ATS with 21 unders, 19 overs and 1 push.
Philadelphia is 27-13 ATS at home with 21 unders, 18 overs and 1 push.
When allowing below 100 points, Philadelphia is 22-0 and Miami is 27-6.
When scoring above 100 points, the Heat are 32-18 and the 76ers are 49-18.
Philadelphia ranks fifth in second chance points per game (13.7) while Miami ranks 25th (11.2).
The 76ers rank first in rebounds per game (47.4) while the Heat rank 18th (43.5).
Miami ranks 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.6) while Philadelphia ranks 27th (18.4).
The Heat average 5.3 blocks per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The 76ers rank 20th in blocks allowed per game (5.1).
Philadelphia ranks second in assists per game (27.1) while Miami ranks 16th (22.7).
The 76ers rank 16th in fast break points per game (11.5) while the Heat rank 27th (9.3).
Miami ranks ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.6) while Philadelphia ranks 17th in three pointers allowed per game (29.6).
The Heat rank 17th in steals per game (7.6) while the 76ers rank 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.5).
Philadelphia ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (41.5) while Miami ranks seventh (43.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Philadelphia is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Heat have been outscored by an average of 1.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 0.5 points.
During their last five games, the 76ers have scored an average of 121.4 points per game (11.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.6 points per game (3.3 above their season average).
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