NBA Odds: Heat (even)
Expect a low-scoring game when the Atlanta Hawks (45-12) and Miami Heat (25-31) square off at AmericanAirlines Arena. Action begins at 7:30 pm ET on Saturday, Feb. 28 and can be seen on SPSO and Sun Sports.
The Heat played well in their last game, edging the Magic 93-90 on Wednesday. Luol Deng was the team’s leading scorer with 21 points on 8-for-14 shooting. The Hawks, meanwhile, are coming off a 104-87 win against the Mavericks on Wednesday. Kyle Korver had a good game for Atlanta, accounting for 16 points, six rebounds, and three assists.
Keep tabs on Miami’s ability to get to the free throw line. They’re ranked second in the NBA in free throw attempt rate (31.3), but Atlanta is among the best in the league at keeping opponents away from the charity stripe (ranking third by yielding a free throw attempt rate of 24.0). Moreover, the Hawks rank third in effective field goal percentage at 52.8%, whereas the suspect field-goal defense of the Heat places 26th with opponents connecting at a clip of 50.8%.
The Hawks have emerged victorious in both games against the Heat this year, including a 112-102 win the last time these two teams met. Jeff Teague had a standout performance in the victory, putting up 27 points, five rebounds, six assists, three steals, and three three-pointers.
The odds for Miami and Atlanta are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. The Heat come into this game 25-31 Straight Up (SU) and 24-29-3 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 4-7 SU and 4-6-1 ATS against divisional opponents.
In the other locker room, the Hawks have a record of 38-19 ATS and 45-12 SU. Against fellow division members, Atlanta has a 7-2 SU and a 6-3 ATS record. The Hawks convert their shots at a high percentage, ranking fourth in the league at .467. The Hawks are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking second in the NBA at 1.9. Shifting to the other side of the court, Atlanta’s defense allows just 96.6 points per game, ranking them third in the league. The Hawks are a problem for teams on the defensive side, allowing only .333 shooting from three-point range to their opponents.
The Hawks’ win over Miami in their last clash wasn’t enough for them to overtake the Heat in the recent head-to-head series. Their record is now 4-6 SU over the last 10 meetings. The teams are even ATS, with a 5-5 record. Miami and Atlanta both held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once over the last 10 games.
Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, ATS Winner – ATL
Notes
While Miami puts up an average of just 93.5 points per game (ranked 28th), Atlanta ranks third in points allowed, giving up 96.6 points per game.
Miami ranks 29th in points per home game with 94.5 points, while Atlanta ranks seventh in points allowed on the road with 98.0.
When the Heat give up fewer than 100 points to their opponents, they are 23-10. When the Hawks score fewer than 100 points, they also have a winning record (13-7).
The Miami Heat have a subpar 2-21 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Atlanta Hawks are 32-5 when they hit triple digits.
The Heat have an offensive rating of 101.3 (ranked 18th). The Hawks rank sixth for their defensive rating of 100.1.
With 92.4 possessions and 1.013 points per possession, the Miami Heat perform worse on both metrics than the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta averages 96.5 possessions and 1.067 points per possession.
The Atlanta Hawks have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking third in the league with an EFF% of 52.8%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Miami Heat have an underachieving 3-18 record.
Atlanta, the second-ranked team in terms of assists, makes an average of 25.6 per game. Miami ranks lower at 28th with 20.2.
Miami makes an average of 4.2 blocks per game (ranked 24th). Atlanta ranks higher in blocks with 4.6 (ranked 17th).
The Miami Heat rank 29th in offensive rebounding, while the Atlanta Hawks rank 12th in defensive rebounding.
The Atlanta Hawks average 8.8 steals per game, ranked sixth in the NBA. The Miami Heat are an even 15-15 when they allow at least 8 steals.
