NBA Odds: Heat (even)
The New Orleans Pelicans (27-26) head to Miami to play the Heat (22-30) in a game that will likely be low scoring. The game starts at 7:30 pm ET on Saturday, Feb. 21 and will air on FSN-NO and Sun Sports.
The Heat lost big to the Cavaliers 113-93 in their last game. Hassan Whiteside recorded 17 points and 14 rebounds, earning his ninth double-double of the year. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are coming off a 106-93 loss to the Pacers in their last outing. Luke Babbitt had a team-high 15 points.
Half-court execution will be at a premium as the Heat rank 30th in the league in possessions per game (91.7), while the Pelicans are 27th (94.6).
The odds are even for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment. The Heat are looking to improve on their records of 22-30 Straight Up (SU) and 23-27-2 Against The Spread (ATS). They have gone 7-14 SU and 8-12-1 ATS against teams from the Western Conference. The Miami defense has been very good, only giving up 96.6 points per game.
Across the court, the Pelicans head into the game with records of 30-23 ATS and 27-26 SU. In Eastern Conference games, New Orleans has gone 8-12 SU and 10-10 ATS. New Orleans’s three-point defense is one of the top in the league, with opponents making only 6.9 shots from the three-point line per game.
The Heat and the Pelicans will be facing off in their first head-to-head contest of the season. When they last met the Pelicans were winners, but the Heat still lead the head-to-head record, 6-4 SU, over the last 10 matchups. However, with a 5-4-1 record, the Pelicans have the advantage ATS. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Miami held the edge in all three of these categories once in the last 10 meetings. New Orleans never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – NO, ATS Winner – NO
Notes
New Orleans ranks 17th in points per game with 99.8, while Miami ranks second in points allowed with an average of 96.6 given up.
New Orleans ranks 22nd in points per away game with 96.7 points, while Miami ranks 11th in points allowed at home with 97.2.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Heat are 21-10 on the season. When the Pelicans score fewer than 100, they are an abysmal 6-19.
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Heat are just 1-20 this season. New Orleans is a superb 21-7 when it reaches the century mark.
The Pelicans have a defensive rating of 105.4 (ranked 25th). The Heat rank 20th for their offensive rating of 101.1.
With 91.7 possessions and 1.011 points per possession, the Miami Heat perform worse on both metrics than the New Orleans Pelicans. New Orleans averages 94.6 possessions and 1.056 points per possession.
The Miami Heat average an effective field goal percentage of 50.1% this season. The New Orleans Pelicans have an underachieving record of 7-17 when opponents have an EFF% of 50.1% or greater.
On average, the New Orleans Pelicans make 21.4 assists per game and the Miami Heat make 20.1. New Orleans is ranked 17th, while Miami is ranked 29th.
The Miami Heat average 4.2 blocks per game for a rank of 24th. The New Orleans Pelicans rank higher (third), earning 6.0 blocks each contest.
The Miami Heat rank 29th in offensive rebounding, while the New Orleans Pelicans rank 19th in defensive rebounding.
The Miami Heat make an average of 8.0 steals per game. The New Orleans Pelicans are 13-16 when they allow 7 or more steals.
