Southeast Division foes will lock horns when the Orlando Magic (17-12) play the Miami Heat (17-11) at the Amway Center. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Saturday, Dec. 26 and can be seen on SUN and FxF.
The Magic enter this game hoping for similar success after edging the Rockets 104-101 on Wednesday. Tobias Harris was a key piece with 19 points, eight rebounds, and one block. The Heat, meanwhile, are coming off a 94-88 win against the Pelicans on Friday. Chris Bosh claimed his 10th double-double of the season with 30 points and 10 rebounds.
Nikola Vucevic has taken his game to another level over the last five games for the Magic. During that stretch, he has averaged 21.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.6 steals, and 0.8 blocks. Hassan Whiteside has been hot for the Heat. In the same five-game span, he is averaging 14.8 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks.
The Magic may have trouble getting to the line in this one. They’re 29th in the NBA in free throw attempt rate (22.3), while Miami is among the NBA’s least foul-prone squads (yielding a free throw attempt rate of just 23.6, second in the NBA).
The Magic are a slim one-point favorite at home against Miami. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of 196 points. The Magic come into this game 17-12 Straight Up (SU) and 21-8 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (8-2).
As for their opponent, the Heat have 17-11 SU and 13-14-1 ATS records. Against fellow division members, Miami has a 2-3 SU and ATS record. The Heat allow just 94.6 points per game, ranking them second in the league. Blocking shots is an area where Miami has excelled. The Heat average 7.0 blocks per game, best in the league.
This game marks the season’s first head-to-head clash between the divisional foes. Their previous game was a Heat victory, bumping their SU record over the last 10 meetings to 9-1. Furthermore, the Heat hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-3-1.
Predictions: SU Winner – Orl, ATS Winner – Orl, O/U – Under
Notes
Orlando is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando’s last 6 games at home.
Orlando is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home.
Orlando is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami.
Orlando is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Miami.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando’s last 7 games when playing at home against Miami.
Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami.
Orlando is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami.
The Magic currently sit below 0.500 against the Southeast Division at 1-3 SU, and the Heat have a 2-3 SU record.
On average, Miami scores 96.5 points per game (ranked 27th), while Orlando allows 98.6 points per game (ranked sixth).
Miami scores an average of 91.2 points per away game (ranked 30th), while Orlando allows 98.9 points per home game (ranked 16th).
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Heat are 15-5 on the season. When the Magic score fewer than 100, they are a losing 3-6.
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Heat are just 2-6 this season. Orlando is a solid 14-6 when registering triple digits.
The Heat have an offensive rating of 102.8 (ranked 13th), while the Magic rank 10th for their defensive rating of 100.6.
Miami has an average field goal percentage of 46.2% (ranked fourth). Orlando is a losing 3-6 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. Orlando is 17th and 10th in the league for EFF% and FG% respectively, while Miami ranks 10th and fourth in these categories.
On average, the Orlando Magic make 22.3 assists per game and the Miami Heat make 19.5. Orlando is ranked 11th, while Miami is ranked 25th.
Miami averages a league-best 7.0 blocks per game. Orlando is the worst team in terms of blocking, with 5.3 per game.
Orlando is ranked 11th when it comes to offensive rebounding. Miami ranks eighth in defensive rebounds.
The Orlando Magic average 8.7 steals per game, ranked eighth in the NBA. The Miami Heat are an even 6-6 when they allow at least 8 steals.
