The Portland Trail Blazers (40-26) look to extend their nine-game winning streak against the Miami Heat (36-31) at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The game can be seen on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 12, 2018.
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers Free Prediction
The Heat will be hoping for similar success after dismantling the Washington Wizards in their last matchup, 129-102. Miami’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Washington. The Heat had a rate of 9.3 (better than their season average of 13.0), while the Wizards posted a mark of 14.0. Kelly Olynyk had a solid performance for Miami, finishing with 13 points and 11 rebounds.
The last time the Trail Blazers played, they were victorious over the Golden State Warriors, 125-108. The Trail Blazers had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 34.1 (above their season average of 22.8) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.584 (above their season average of 0.511). With 28 points and eight assists, Damian Lillard had a good outing for Portland.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Portland figures to have a considerable advantage. The Trail Blazers defense ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.502), while the Miami offense is ranked 15th in effective field goal percentage (0.521).
Miami heads into the contest with records of 36-31 straight up (SU) and 35-29-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Heat games, with 35 unders compared to 30 overs.
Meanwhile, Portland owns records of 40-26 SU and 35-25-6 ATS. Games including the Trail Blazers have typically finished under the total (57.6 percent).
Justise Winslow has averaged 13.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.0 steals over the last five games for Miami.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, CJ McCollum scored a game-high 28 points and the Trail Blazers, who were 2.5-point underdogs, defeated the Heat 102-95. The game finished with a total of 197 points, which was 7.5 points below the projected point total of 204.5 points. The Trail Blazers knocked down 20 of their 23 free throws (87.0 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (11.8 vs. 15.4).
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers Betting Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 22-11-1 ATS on the road with 18 unders, 15 overs and 1 push.
Portland is 17-13-3 ATS at home with 18 unders and 15 overs.
Miami is 21-6 when they allow less than 100 points, while Portland is 21-5.
The Heat are 26-15 when they reach the century mark, while the Trail Blazers are 35-13.
Miami averages 5.3 blocks per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Portland ranks 22nd in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
The Trail Blazers rank third in rebounds per game (45.2) while the Heat rank 18th (43.0).
Miami ranks 20th in assists per game (22.3) while Portland ranks last (19.1).
The Heat rank 18th in steals per game (7.5) while the Trail Blazers rank 27th (6.9).
Portland ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (41.9) while Miami ranks 11th (43.2).
The Heat rank 21st in points off turnovers per game (16.1) while the Trail Blazers rank 28th (14.5).
Miami ranks 28th in fast break points per game (8.1) while Portland ranks last (7.7).
The Heat are third in the NBA with 25.9 three pointers allowed per game while the Trail Blazers are fourth with 26.5 three pointers allowed per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 4-0-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Portland is 5-0 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 12.6, up from 0.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Trail Blazers have scored an average of 112.0 points per game (6.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 99.4 points per game (3.8 below their season average).
—–
