The Toronto Raptors welcome the Miami Heat in an Eastern Conference Semifinals Game matchup that pits the fifth-ranked offense against the fourth-ranked defense. The game begins at 8:00 pm ET on Thursday, May 5 and can be seen on ESP and C+D.
The Raptors were beaten by the Heat 102-96 on Tuesday. Despite the loss, Jonas Valanciunas earned his 26th double-double this season with 24 points and 14 rebounds.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength, as the prolific offense of Toronto (fifth in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 107.3) takes on the top-notch defense of Miami (fourth in the league with a defensive efficiency of 101.8). Also, the Heat commit the fourth-fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 13.8%), while the gambling defense of the Raptors causes the fourth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.6%).
The Raptors come into this game 60-30 Straight Up (SU) and 46-43-1 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a record of 60-30 SU and 46-43-1 ATS versus the Eastern Conference. The Toronto defense has been very good, only giving up 97.9 points per game.
On the other side, the Heat have a record of 48-41-1 ATS and 53-37 SU. Miami has records of 53-37 SU and 48-41-1 ATS against the East. The Heat are one of the top defensive teams in the league, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 97.7 points allowed per game. Miami’s defense is one of the top in the league, with opponents shooting only .438 from the field.
Miami won the last meeting this season between these two teams, taking the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over the past 10 meetings. The Raptors lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor
Notes
“Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games “.
“Toronto is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games “.
“The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto’s last 9 games “.
“Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home”.
“Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home”.
“Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami”.
“Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami”.
“Toronto is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing Miami”.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto’s last 6 games when playing Miami”.
“Toronto is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Miami”.
On average, Miami scores 100.0 points per game (ranked 23rd), while Toronto gives up 97.9 points per game (ranked fourth).
Miami ranks 29th in points per away game with 96.4 points, while Toronto ranks sixth in points allowed at home with 98.0.
The Miami Heat have a solid 41-14 record when their opponents score fewer than 100 points this season. The Toronto Raptors are 16-15 when they score less than 100.
The Miami Heat have an underachieving 12-23 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Toronto Raptors are 44-15 when they hit the century mark.
The Heat have an offensive rating of 105.2 (ranked ninth), while the Raptors rank sixth for their defensive rating of 103.3.
The Miami Heat have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking fourth in the league with a FG% of 47.0%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the Toronto Raptors have a poor 10-16 record.
On average, Toronto attempts 23.0 three pointers and Miami attempts 18.0 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Raptors have a winning 24-13 record while the Heat have an abysmal 1-5 record.
Toronto has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.52 this season (ranked 23rd). Miami ranks higher with an A/TO of 1.57 (ranked 19th).
The Toronto Raptors rebound 43.5 times per game and are ranked 15th. Ranked ninth, the Miami Heat rebound 44.4 times per game.
The Miami Heat rank 22nd in offensive rebounding, while the Toronto Raptors rank 21st in defensive rebounding.
On average, the Heat force a turnover rate of 12.6%, ranked seventh in the NBA. When the Raptors turn over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a fantastic 36-11 record.
