The Toronto Raptors and their fifth-ranked offense welcome the Miami Heat and their fourth-ranked defense in Game of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Action starts at 8:00 pm ET on Wednesday, May 11 and can be seen on TNT.
The Raptors fell to the Heat 94-87 on Monday. Bismack Biyombo recorded 13 points and 13 rebounds, earning his 11th double-double of the year.
The game should be a showdown of strength against strength, as the high-powered offense of Toronto (fifth in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 106.9) takes on the top-notch defense of Miami (fourth in the league with a defensive efficiency of 101.6). Also, the Heat commit the fourth-fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 13.8%), while the gambling defense of the Raptors causes the fourth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.6%).
The Raptors enter the game with records of 62-31 Straight Up (SU) and 47-45-1 Against The Spread (ATS). They have gone 62-31 SU and 47-45-1 ATS against teams from the Eastern Conference. It’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Raptors. The 97.7 points that Toronto’s defense allows per game makes them the fourth-ranked defense in the league.
On the other side, the Heat have 54-39 SU and 50-42-1 ATS records. Most recently, Miami is a meager 3-7 ATS over the last 10 games. The Heat are one of the top defensive teams in the league, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 97.6 points allowed per game. Miami’s defense is one of the top in the league, with opponents shooting only .438 from the field.
In their previous meeting this season, Miami beat Toronto, but the Raptors still lead the head-to-head record, 7-3 SU, over the last 10 matchups. Additionally, the Raptors hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor
Notes
Miami ranks 23rd in points per game with 99.8, while Toronto ranks fourth in points allowed with an average of 97.7 given up.
Miami ranks 29th in points per away game with 96.3 points, while Toronto ranks sixth in points allowed at home with 97.8.
The Miami Heat have a winning 42-16 record when their opponents score fewer than 100 points this season. The Toronto Raptors are 18-16 when they score less than 100.
The Miami Heat have a poor 12-23 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Toronto Raptors are 44-15 when they hit the century mark.
The Raptors have a defensive rating of 103.1, fifth-best in the NBA. The Heat also rank in the top half of the league for their offensive rating of 105.0 (ranked 12th).
Ranked fourth in the NBA, Miami has an average field goal percentage of 46.9%. Toronto is 11-16 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Miami Heat rank higher for their field goal percentage (fourth) than their effective field goal percentage (11th), while the Toronto Raptors rank the same for both metrics (19th).
On average, the Miami Heat make 20.4 assists per game and the Toronto Raptors make 18.4. Miami is ranked 26th, while Toronto is ranked 29th.
The Miami Heat top the league in blocking, with 6.4 made per game. The Toronto Raptors average 5.3 blocks per game (ranked 11th).
The Toronto Raptors rank 16th in offensive rebounding, while the Miami Heat rank fifth in defensive rebounding.
Miami makes an average of 6.6 steals per game. Toronto has a winning 41-17 record when it allows at least 6 steals.
