The Toronto Raptors welcome the Miami Heat in an Eastern Conference Semifinals Game matchup that pits the fifth-ranked offense against the fourth-ranked defense. Action starts at 3:30 pm ET on Sunday, May 15 and will air on ABC.
The Raptors are expecting a different result after their 103-91 loss to the Heat on Friday. Kyle Lowry finished with 36 points to lead the game.
This battle pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses, as Toronto currently ranks fifth in the NBA in offensive efficiency and Miami is fourth in defensive efficiency. Also, the Heat commit the fourth-fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 13.8%), while the ball-hawking defense of the Raptors causes the fourth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.6%).
The Raptors enter the game with records of 63-31 Straight Up (SU) and 48-45-1 Against The Spread (ATS). They have gone 63-31 SU and 48-45-1 ATS against teams from the Eastern Conference. Teams routinely struggle to score points against the Raptors, who allow only 97.7 points per game.
Across the court, the Heat have a record of 51-43-1 ATS and 55-40 SU. Miami has not performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning a 2-8 record. Offensively, the Heat have really sputtered in the last 10 games. Their season average has fallen to 99.7 points per game after averaging only 92.1 during that stretch. The Heat are one of the top defensive teams in the league, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 97.5 points allowed per game. Miami’s defense is one of the top in the league, with opponents shooting only .438 from the field.
The Heat’s win over Toronto in their last clash couldn’t give them the edge in the head-to-head record over the past 10 meetings, where the Raptors still lead 6-4 SU. At 5-5, they are even ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor
Notes
“Toronto is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games “.
“Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home”.
“Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home”.
“Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami”.
“Toronto is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Miami”.
“Toronto is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Miami”.
“Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami”.
“Toronto is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Miami”.
“Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami”.
Toronto puts up an average of 101.4 points per game (ranked 21st), while Miami allows 97.5 points per game (ranked third).
On average, Toronto scores 103.6 points per home game (ranked 17th), while Miami gives up 98.4 points per away game (ranked fourth).
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Toronto Raptors are a dazzling 52-6. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Miami Heat have a subpar record of 18-29.
The Toronto Raptors have a poor 11-26 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Miami Heat are 37-11 when they hit triple digits.
The Heat have a defensive rating of 101.6, fourth-best in the NBA. The Raptors also rank in the top half of the league for their offensive rating of 106.8 (ranked fifth).
The Miami Heat average 94.9 possessions per game and 1.050 points per possession. The Toronto Raptors earn fewer possessions with 94.9, but they score more points with 1.068.
The Miami Heat average an effective field goal percentage of 50.7% this season. The Toronto Raptors have split their games 19-19 when opponents have an EFF% of 50.7% or greater.
Toronto makes an average of 18.3 assists per game (ranked 29th). Miami ranks higher in assists with 20.2 (ranked 26th).
The Miami Heat top the league in blocking, with 6.4 made per game. The Toronto Raptors average 5.3 blocks per game (ranked 11th).
The Toronto Raptors rank 16th in offensive rebounding, while the Miami Heat rank fifth in defensive rebounding.
The Miami Heat make an average of 6.6 steals per game. When the Toronto Raptors allow 6 or more steals, they are a solid 41-17.