The Chicago Bulls (5-13) meet the Miami Heat (6-11) at the United Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 23, 2018, and will air on WGN Channel 9.
Miami is a 2.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 214 points.
Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls Free Prediction
The Heat failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites in their 104-92 loss to the Brooklyn Nets in their last game. The game’s combined points (196) were well under the projected point total of 215.5. One of Brooklyn’s biggest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They made 26 trips to the line, while Miami went 20 times. Hassan Whiteside was the top scorer from either team with 21 points on 9-for-21 shooting.
The last time the Bulls took the court, they beat the Phoenix Suns, 124-116, despite being 1.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (240) finished well over the projected point total of 217.5. Chicago’s free throw rate was their largest advantage over Phoenix. The Bulls had a rate of 0.259 (above their season average of 0.182), while the Suns posted a mark of 0.102 (below their season average of 0.192). With 20 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists, Jabari Parker put together a good performance for Chicago.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami figures to have a significant advantage. The Heat defense ranks seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.508), while the Chicago offense is ranked 21st in effective field goal percentage (0.506).
Miami comes into the game with records of 6-11 straight up (SU) and 6-11 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Heat are playing, as 64.7 percent of their games have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, Chicago owns records of 5-13 SU and 9-9 ATS. Unlike Miami, Bulls games have a tendency to go under the total (61.1 percent).
After the Heat won three out of four meetings against the Bulls last season, these teams will clash for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, Miami won 103-92. Miami had a better effective field goal percentage (0.494 vs. 0.400). Chicago, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (27.5 vs. 16.3).
Heat at Bulls ATS Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 3-4 ATS on the road with 5 overs and 2 unders.
At home, Chicago is 6-4 ATS with 7 unders and 3 overs.
In games where they allow less than 100 points, Chicago and Miami are both 2-1.
In games where they score above 100 points, the Bulls are 3-8 and the Heat are 5-8.
Miami averages 6.6 blocks per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Chicago ranks 27th in blocks allowed per game (6.9).
The Heat rank sixth in second chance points per game (15.0) while the Bulls rank 29th (9.4).
Miami averages 47.9 rebounds per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Chicago ranks 28th in rebounds allowed per game (49.2).
The Heat rank second in assists allowed per game (21.2) while the Bulls rank 21st (24.9).
Miami ranks 10th in three pointers attempted per game (32.9) while Chicago ranks 24th in three pointers allowed per game (34.7).
The Bulls rank 14 in steals per game (7.666666666666667) while the Heat rank 27 (6.529411764705882).
Chicago ranks 24 in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.72222222222222) while Miami ranks 26 (19.647058823529413).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five games, Miami is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Chicago is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.6, up from 1.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bulls have scored an average of 98.2 points per game (6.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 115.0 points per game (1.4 above their season average).
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