The Dallas Mavericks (16-34) go head-to-head with the Miami Heat (28-21) at American Airlines Center. The game can be seen on Fox Sports Sun at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 29, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 196.5 points with Miami opening as a 1.5-point favorite.
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Prediction
The Heat will be looking for similar success after topping the Charlotte Hornets in their last contest, 95-91. Miami’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Charlotte. The Heat had a rate of 0.494 (below their season average of 0.523), while the Hornets posted a mark of 0.375 (below their season average of 0.496). With 19 points on 6-for-13 shooting, Josh Richardson was Miami’s high scorer.
In the Mavericks’ last game, they lost a close one to the Denver Nuggets, 91-89. Denver’s 20.5 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Dallas, who had a mark of 15.4. The Nuggets’ mark was below their season average of 26.6, while the Mavericks’ was below the 21.3 mark opponents have averaged against Denver this season. With 22 points on 9-for-19 shooting, Harrison Barnes was Dallas’ high scorer.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams battle. Dallas currently ranks 25th in possessions per game (97.0) and Miami is 28th (96.6).
Miami heads into the game with records of 28-21 straight up (SU) and 23-24-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total high when the Heat are involved, as 57.1 percent of their games have gone under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Dallas owns records of 16-34 SU and 25-25 ATS. Mavericks games also tend to go under the projected point total (56.0 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Richardson (12.2 points, 4.2 assists and 2.0 steals) has been fantastic for the Heat while Dennis Smith Jr. (18.4 points, 6.0 assists and 1.6 steals) has contributed greatly to the Mavericks.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Richardson put up 24 points and five assists and the Heat, who were 2-point underdogs, beat the Mavericks 113-101. The game finished with a total of 214 points, which was 18.5 points above the projected point total of 195.5 points. Miami’s effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Dallas. The Heat had a rate of 0.750 while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.620.
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Miami is 16-10 ATS with 15 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
At home, Dallas is 12-15 ATS with 16 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Miami is 16-5 and Dallas is 12-9.
The Heat are 20-7 when they reach 100 points, while the Mavericks are 10-15.
Miami ranks sixth in fast break points allowed per game (9.8) while Dallas ranks 27th (13.8).
The Heat rank sixth in blocks per game (5.2) while the Mavericks rank 26th (3.8).
Miami ranks seventh in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while Dallas ranks 27th (45.6).
The Mavericks rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.6) while the Heat rank 15th (16.1).
Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (25.4) while Dallas ranks 16th (29.1).
The Mavericks rank first in points allowed in the paint per game (40.0) while the Heat rank 14th (43.3).
Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (19.9) while Dallas ranks 13th (22.4).
The Mavericks rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (10.7) while the Heat rank ninth (11.5).
Miami ranks 24th in steals per game (7.0) while Dallas ranks 25th (6.9).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.2, up from 0.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 97.0 points per game (5.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 98.8 points per game (5.1 below their season average).
