The Miami Heat welcome the Denver Nuggets to AmericanAirlines Arena. Action begins at 7:30 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 20 and can be seen on Altitude2 and Sun Sports.
The Heat played well in their last game, topping the Trail Blazers 108-104 on Wednesday. Dwyane Wade was the team’s leading scorer with 32 points on 13-for-26 shooting. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the 92-81 loss against the Grizzlies on Monday. Jameer Nelson had a game-high 24 points.
Over the last five games, Wade has taken his game to another level for the Heat, averaging 30.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.6 three-pointers. Kenneth Faried has been hot for the Nuggets. In the same five-game span, he is averaging 16.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.8 steals, and 2.2 blocks.
The physical Heat offense might be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this one. They rank second in the league at getting to the line (free throw attempt rate of 31.7), while Denver is among the NBA’s most foul-prone teams (giving up a 28th-ranked free throw attempt rate of 31.5). It will also be a tale of two tempos, as the fast-paced Nuggets are ranked fourth in possessions per game, with the methodical Heat at 29th.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams, with the Nuggets winning the first matchup 102-82. Arron Afflalo had a standout performance in the victory, putting up 16 points, four rebounds, one assist, one block, and one three-pointer.
The odds for Miami and Denver are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently not available. The Heat come into this game 31-36 Straight Up (SU) and 31-33-3 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (7-3). The Heat have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 101.7 points during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 94.9 points per game. Miami will look to take advantage of the Nuggets and their propensity to foul. Denver has committed the most fouls in the league, averaging 22.8 per game.
Over on the other bench, the Nuggets have 26-42 SU and 29-36-3 ATS records. Denver performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning an 8-2 record.
With the Nuggets’ last win against Miami, they evened up the head-to-head record over the last 10 meetings, 5-5 SU. The Nuggets lead the matchup ATS with a record of 7-3. Over the last 10 matchups, Denver held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers two times. Miami performed this feat once.
Predictions: SU Winner – DEN, ATS Winner – DEN
Notes
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home.
Miami is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing Denver.
Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver.
Miami is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Denver.
Miami ranks 27th in points per game with 94.9, while Denver ranks 26th in points allowed with an average of 103.7 given up.
Denver ranks 18th in points allowed per road game (104.3 PPG), while Miami ranks 25th in points per home game with 96.6.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Heat are 27-12 on the season. When the Nuggets score fewer than 100, they are an underachieving 4-24.
At 4-24, the Miami Heat have an abysmal record when their opponents score at least 100 points. The Denver Nuggets are 22-18 when they put up triple digits.
The Nuggets have a defensive rating of 104.0 (ranked 21st). The Heat rank 17th for their offensive rating of 101.7.
Miami averages fewer possessions per game than Denver, with 93.3 compared to 99.7. However, the Heat score an average of 1.017 points per possession, more than the 1.006 that the Nuggets score.
Miami has an average effective field goal percentage of 50.4%. Denver is an underachieving 2-26 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Miami makes an average of 20.1 assists per game (ranked 28th). Denver ranks higher in assists with 21.6 (ranked 15th).
Miami makes an average of 4.3 blocks per game (ranked 24th). Denver ranks higher in blocks with 4.7 (ranked 14th).
The Miami Heat rank 29th in offensive rebounding, while the Denver Nuggets rank 11th in defensive rebounding.
Miami averages 8.1 steals per game, ranking 10th in the league. Denver is an abysmal 6-24 when it allows at least 8 steals.
