NBA Preview: Miami Heat catching the Pistons in a bad situational spot
Miami Heat (35-38) at Detroit Pistons (34-40), 7:30 p.m. EST
Line: Heat -2.5. Total 202.
Last Friday I talked about how taking a public play is not a bad thing in this NBA preview article: Link. That was a good situational spot for Cleveland and they won and covered the short Vegas line.
Miami has a favorable situational spot tonight against the Pistons and nothing will stop me from taking the Heat.
The Pistons are in freefall, despite being just 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. A win against the Heat tonight would bring the Pistons within half a game of Miami for the #8 seed.
The problem for Detroit is the lack of any evidence that they are going to get any closer to that final playoff berth than they are right now. Starting point guard Reggie Jackson may be out for the season. Detroit has lost 7 out of their last 8 games. Their only win during this downslide was against the Phoenix Suns, who are sitting their veterans the rest of the season and playing their young guys. The Suns are in the midst of an 8-game losing streak.
Let’s analyze the Pistons last 7 losses. One word: embarrassing. Six of those losses were double-digit losses. Detroit’s other loss was to the Brooklyn Nets, the worst team in the league.
After the Pistons lost to Brooklyn, Detroit’s 4-game road trip only got worse. The Pistons lost to the Bulls by 22 points, then lost to Orlando by 28 and then concluded their atrocious road trip Monday night by losing to the Knicks by 14 points.
Detroit is a much better home team, carrying a 24-13 record at The Palace of Auburn Hills. However, the Pistons play their biggest game of the year on the back-end of a back-to-back. Detroit is 3-11 straight up and ATS (Against The Spread) this season on back-enders.
Miami is just 6-7 straight up and ATS in “check-mark” games this season. A check-mark game is a game where a rested team is playing an opponent on the back-end of a back-to-back.
However, if you delve deeper into that 6-7 record, you will find that the Heat are 4-1 straight up and ATS in check-mark games since January 17, the day when the Heat turned around their season.
In their “Tale of Two Seasons”, Miami had an 11-30 record at the halfway point of the season. Since then, the Heat are 24-8.
Miami has won numerous games in very difficult situational spots during this 32-game run.
I expect them to win Tuesday night and cover the low Vegas number.
My record (5-4, +$16). My pick:
Miami Heat -2.5, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
NBA Preview: Wizards vs Lakers
Washington Wizards (45-28) at Los Angeles Lakers (21-52), 10:30 p.m. EST
Line: Wizards -9. Total 226.
This is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions.
It is no secret that the Lakers have been tanking their season for many weeks now. They traded away their leading scorer, Lou Williams, to the Houston Rockets at the trade deadline. The Lakers have sat their veterans in order to get their young guns more playing time. Los Angeles needs to finish in the bottom 3 in the league to keep a protected top 3 pick in next year’s draft.
The Lakers were 6-4 after 10 games and 10-10 after 20 games to start the season. Since their 10-10 start, Los Angeles has gone 11-42 and have won just 5 of their last 32 games.
The Wizards started the season 2-8 and then were 7-13 after 20 games. So they were 3 games worse than the Lakers after 20 games. Since then, Washington has gone 38-15 and still have an outside shot at the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Wizards have gone over the Vegas total in 11 of their last 14 games while the Lakers have gone over 8 of their last 10 games.
Washington has a fairly strong chart-play in their favor tonight against the spread as they have covered two straight games after not covering their previous 6 games.
I have small leans to the Wizards and the over.
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Look for other NBA previews like the Miami Heat vs the Detroit Pistons on the GMS website.
