The Houston Rockets (32-12) clash against the Miami Heat (27-19) at Toyota Center. The game will air on NBATV at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, January 22, 2018.
Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets ATS Prediction
The Heat come in on a high note after narrowly defeating the Charlotte Hornets in their last contest, 106-105. Miami launched 28 three pointers, making 13 of them (46.4 percent). Charlotte, meanwhile, was 7-27 (25.9 percent). Kelly Olynyk played a key role for Miami with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
The last time the Rockets played, they beat the Golden State Warriors, 116-108. The Rockets, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.7, had a solid mark of 29.3, while the Warriors had a free throw rate of 0.134 (below their season average of 0.202). Chris Paul was the game’s leading scorer with 33 points on 10-for-20 shooting.
The aggressive Houston offense might be living from the foul line in this meeting. The Rockets rank first in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.235, while Miami ranks 26th in FTA rate allowed (0.218). Furthermore, the Heat, who rank 26th in offensive rebounding percentage (20.1 percent), will face off against the Rockets, who rank first in defensive rebounding percentage (81.5 percent).
Miami heads into the contest with records of 27-19 straight up (SU) and 21-23-2 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Heat’s games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Houston owns records of 32-12 SU and 22-21-1 ATS. Games featuring the Rockets have no tendency in regards to the projected point total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Josh Richardson (13.4 points, 4.0 assists and 1.8 steals) has been fantastic for the Heat while Paul (24.8 points, 8.4 assists, 7.0 rebounds and 1.6 steals) has contributed greatly to the Rockets.
After the Heat won both matchups against the Rockets last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent contest, Miami won 117-109. Miami had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.601 vs. 0.489). Houston, on the other hand, did a terrific job of making free throws (24-31; 77.4 percent).
Miami Heat at Houston Rockets Odds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Miami is 15-10 ATS with 14 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
Houston is 10-12-1 ATS at home with 14 overs and 9 unders.
Houston is 14-2 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Miami is 15-3.
When reaching the century mark, the Rockets are 32-9 and the Heat are 20-7.
Houston ranks third in steals per game (9.0) while Miami ranks 23rd (7.1).
The Rockets rank fifth in points off turnovers per game (18.2) while the Heat rank 23rd (15.0).
Miami ranks 14th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.6) while Houston ranks 28th (47.6).
The Heat rank first in three pointers allowed per game (25.5) while the Rockets rank 14th (28.8).
Houston ranks 14th in fast break points per game (11.2) while Miami ranks 27th (7.5).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (20.1) while the Rockets rank 16th (22.8).
Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.2) while Houston ranks 18th in blocks allowed per game (5.1).
The Rockets rank 17th in second chance points per game (12.1) while the Heat rank 28th (10.1).
Houston ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.9) while Miami ranks seventh (42.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Houston is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 2.0 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.7 points.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 113.4 points per game (1.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.2 points per game (1.7 below their season average).
