The Miami Heat (23-17) will try to continue their five-game winning streak against the Indiana Pacers (21-19) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 10, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports Sun.
Indiana opened as a 4-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 207 points.
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Free Prediction
The Heat come in on a high note after narrowly defeating the Toronto Raptors in their last game, 90-89. Miami had an offensive rebounding percentage of 40.0 (above their season average of 19.9). Toronto, meanwhile, had a turnover percentage of 4.9 (better than their season average of 12.0). Miami received a boost from Goran Dragic, who led the team in scoring with 24 points on 10-for-21 shooting.
The last time the Pacers played, they beat the Milwaukee Bucks, 109-96. The Pacers held the Bucks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.5 (below their season average of 19.0) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.601 (above their season average of 0.535). Domantas Sabonis led Indiana in scoring with 17 points on 8-for-12 shooting.
Miami could struggle to create turnovers. Indiana ranks eighth in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.4 percent), while Miami forces the 19th-most turnovers (13.9 percent). Moreover, the Heat, who rank 26th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.172), could struggle to get to the line against the Pacers, who rank third in opponents’ FTA rate (0.164).
Miami heads into the game with records of 23-17 straight up (SU) and 16-21-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 39 games with betting action, 22 have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Indiana owns records of 21-19 SU and 22-18 ATS. Much like Miami, Pacers games also have typically gone under the projected point total (55.0 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Dragic (19.0 points and 7.6 assists) has been fantastic for the Heat while Sabonis (14.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.2 blocks) has contributed greatly to the Pacers.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Pacers won the most recent matchup 120-95, covering as 6-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 215 points, which was 6.5 points above the projected point total of 208.5 points. The Pacers had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.665 vs. 0.500) and had a better turnover percentage (11.9 vs. 14.4). Myles Turner was a top performer in the victory, with 25 points and seven rebounds.
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Odds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Miami is 11-8 ATS with 12 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
At home, Indiana is 12-10 ATS with 14 unders, 7 overs and 1 push.
In games where they allow under 100 points, Indiana is 11-1 and Miami is 14-3.
The Pacers are 19-8 when they score above 100 points, while the Heat are 17-6.
Indiana ranks third in fast break points per game (14.5) while Miami ranks 26th (7.3).
The Heat rank first in three pointers allowed per game (25.0) while the Pacers rank 23rd (30.5).
Indiana ranks fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.4) while Miami ranks 22nd (15.1).
The Heat rank fourth in assists allowed per game (20.3) while the Pacers rank 21st (23.8).
Miami averages 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Indiana ranks 23rd in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
The Pacers rank 14th in points in the paint per game (44.1) while the Heat rank 26th (41.0).
Indiana ranks 16th in second chance points per game (12.1) while Miami ranks 27th (10.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Indiana is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 3.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has been defeated by an average of 1.3 points.
During their last five games, the Pacers have scored an average of 106.4 points per game (0.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.0 points per game (0.6 below their season average).
