The New York Knicks (27-51) challenge the Miami Heat (43-36) at Madison Square Garden. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, April 6, 2018, and will air on MSG Network.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 209.5 points with Miami opening as a 9-point favorite.
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks Free Prediction
The Heat come in on a high note after blowing out the Atlanta Hawks in their last outing, 115-86. The Heat forced 15 turnovers and held the Hawks to an effective field goal percentage of 0.417 (below their season average of 0.512). Miami rallied around Josh Richardson, who put up 19 points.
In the Knicks’ last game, they lost big to the Orlando Magic, 97-73. Orlando’s 23.9 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over New York, who had a rate of 14.3. The Magic’s mark was above their season average of 20.1, while the Knicks’ was below their season average of 24.4. New York’s Kyle O’Quinn finished with 13 points, 12 rebounds and five blocks in the game.
New York might have difficulty putting up points as they go head-to-head against one of the league’s best defenses. Miami ranks fifth in defensive efficiency, while the Knicks rank 24th in offensive efficiency.
Miami comes into the game with records of 43-36 straight up (SU) and 40-35-4 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Heat have a slight tendency to finish under the total (51.9 percent).
Meanwhile, New York owns records of 27-51 SU and 36-42 ATS. Knicks games have finished over the O/U total 48.7 percent of the time.
Trey Burke has averaged 22.4 points, 9.0 assists and 1.6 steals over the last five games for New York.
The Heat have won two out of three against the Knicks this season, including a 21-point blowout in their last matchup. Miami covered as a 10-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 217 points, hitting the projected point total. The Heat had a much better turnover percentage (7.3 vs. 12.9) and had a better free throw rate (0.173 vs. 0.112). In the loss, Enes Kanter had a double-double with 23 points and 13 rebounds.
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Miami is 24-14-2 ATS with 21 unders, 18 overs and 1 push.
New York is 20-18 ATS at home with 20 unders and 18 overs.
When allowing less than 100 points, New York is 13-4 and Miami is 27-6.
In games where they score over 100 points, the Heat are 31-18 and the Knicks are 26-28.
Miami ranks ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while New York ranks 29th (23.1).
The Knicks rank sixth in second chance points per game (13.5) while the Heat rank 26th (10.9).
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.8) while New York ranks 21st (24.0).
The Heat rank 19th in steals per game (7.6) while the Knicks rank 27th (6.8).
Miami averages 5.3 blocks per game, which ranks sixth in the league. New York ranks 14th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
The Heat average 16.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 15th in the league. The Knicks rank 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
Miami is 27th in the league with 9.1 fast break points per game while New York is 29th with 8.4 fast break points per game.
The Knicks average 44.1 rebounds per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Heat rank 14th in rebounds allowed per game (43.0).
New York averages 46.5 points in the paint per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Miami ranks 10th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
New York is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 12.2, up from 1.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Knicks have scored an average of 102.4 points per game (1.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 112.8 points per game (4.8 above their season average).
*****
