The Miami Heat (36-32) will try to put an end to their eight-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Sacramento Kings (21-47) at Golden 1 Center. The game starts at 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 14, 2018, and will air on NBC Sports – California.
Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings Betting Prediction
The Heat are hoping for a better outcome after their 115-99 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers in their last game. Portland was effective at getting to and converting from the charity stripe. The Trail Blazers made 25 of their 30 free throws (83.3 percent), while the Heat were just 11-16 (68.8 percent). Miami’s Justise Winslow played well, putting up 15 points and 13 rebounds.
In the Kings’ last matchup, they fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 106-101. Oklahoma City’s 0.167 free throw rate was their largest strength over Sacramento, who had a rate of 0.140. The Thunder’s mark was below their season average of 0.188, while the Kings’ was below the 0.192 mark opponents have averaged against Oklahoma City this season. With 19 points on 6-for-11 shooting, Bogdan Bogdanovic led Sacramento in scoring.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams face off. Sacramento ranks 26th in possessions per game (97.3) and Miami is 25th (97.4).
Miami heads into the game with records of 36-32 straight up (SU) and 35-30-3 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 68 games, 35 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Sacramento is 21-47 SU and 31-34-3 ATS. Unlike Miami, just over half of Kings games have finished over the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Winslow (11.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.6 steals) has been stellar for the Heat while Kosta Koufos (11.6 points and 9.6 rebounds) has contributed greatly to the Kings.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Buddy Hield scored a game-high 24 points and the Kings, who were 9.5-point underdogs, beat the Heat 89-88. He also had five rebounds. The game finished with a total of 177 points, which was 23.5 points below the projected point total of 200.5 points. Sacramento’s effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Miami. The Kings had a rate of 0.500 while the Heat posted a mark of 0.451.
Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings ATS Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 22-12-1 ATS on the road with 18 unders, 16 overs and 1 push.
Sacramento is 15-18 ATS at home with 18 overs and 15 unders.
Sacramento is 13-5 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 21-6.
The Kings are 15-20 when they score over 100 points, while the Heat are 26-15.
Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (26.0) while Sacramento ranks last (31.9).
The Heat rank seventh in blocks per game (5.2) while the Kings rank 26th (4.1).
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.6) while Sacramento ranks 22nd (24.3).
The Heat rank 19th in rebounds per game (43.1) while the Kings rank 28th (40.6).
Sacramento ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.5) while Miami ranks 10th (43.1).
The Kings rank 20th in second chance points per game (11.6) while the Heat rank 25th (10.7).
Sacramento ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (10.1) while Miami ranks 27th (8.2).
The Heat average 7.5 steals per game, which ranks 17th in the league. The Kings rank 19th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 3-1-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Sacramento is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.6, up from 0.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 100.4 points per game (1.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.4 points per game (0.2 above their season average).
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